bert: From where do you draw you statistical data? I've seen no specific mention of a large population of girls 18-30 who were scammers.
Likewise while the reporting of a crime may be quite objective - these scam situations seem to be more subjective. Where there are specific requests for money by women we have never even met - those could very well not be women at all (in real life) or older (or even younger).
bert - I remind you that I GO TO the FSU to find the women that I am involved with (Romance Socials) and therefore all of the women I have met are AT LEAST REAL WOMEN.
There has been nothing stated anywhere here that would pass even the simplest test of statistical analysis required to make the assertions you seem to want to make.
Despite some of the childish bickering and point scoring that goes on on this site, there have been a few useful answers to my question that started this thread off.
Thanks to thomasm3, who has at least provided me with a little hope that I am not completely bashing my head against a brick wall of scammers, with his positive outlook on things.
So I guess everyone has a different take on exactly how many scammers there actually are out there, although everyone agrees that there are MANY, and that it can take many different forms.
I will continue my quest - for the time being at least. Perhaps after I have been stood up a few times, wasted a few more quid on professional letter writers and been deceived a few more times I will decide that the percentage of scammers out there is just to high to make me want to continue. But for the time being, onwards and upwards through the mine field I will go!
Why look at the Ukraine only, there is also Russia where there is a high ratio of women to men, so you have a better chance, and also Moldova, where the girls (through my limited experience) seem genuine?
Yorkie - agreed, everyone has their own opinion on your topic.
Just like you, I am continuing my quest and still think she's out there. I only seek one, and can have a fair share. I'm not one of those sex-tourists assholes making $50k a year and pretending to be rich. I make very good money and can realistically support a wife who will not work. I can also support her family as well if needed. It is not my concern. You have addressed my concerns with your topic.
I found many girls I wrote, to be shallow, superficial and almost down-right arrogant about what they want from a husband. Unfortunately, even on this site, I am running into a prolific amount of insincerity, rudeness, greediness. Yet, I still remain because I have great conversations with one or sometimes two women. So in my case 98% of the girls I wrote did not make it past the polite beginning stages.
That's about as honest as i can give you. It's about luck and finding the right one. Or why would we be here in the first place?
My own story? I practically ran into the worst sort imaginable - wrote one girl who shined brighter than all the rest - went and met her - it completely lied about everything they said they were - just try to play games to land a rich attractive foreigner. A socio path with no remorse and a serious pathological liar. Ok, this occurred, but I happened to meet some very high quality women the same week at last minutes notice. Some good, some not so good as well. It happens. Don't give up because of a set back.
PS> If a girl did not want to meet me and she was adamant we do some from the beginning of our letters? It would be red flag time of course. I had one not tell me a lot of stuff. Her being gone on a Saturday and working on a sunday? With my luck, the girl would have a boyfriend and just using an agency to make him jealous...
... Oh that actually happened to me in Cali Colombia with a super young hottie. And she cancelled our first date - excuses... she called Monday and apologized profusely to the agency. In hindsite she was with her local boyfriend... just like someone had warned me - and I didn't listen. ;) It was me.
I guess we have 2 different statistical bases, you go for the sure fire strategy, and by your post I have learned that perhaps this is the best way to go, go to the socials and start with what is real. But for those of us in the starting off phase, we have to go through the learning curve of going from a selected set and see the "survival rate" you can have... BTW, my selected set was close 500 and about 50 sucessful follow through that after 1 month has narrowed down to 15 and fading fast... this ladies appear to be far more demanded than we think of
We do not have enough information to estimate a precise figure on what the real numbers of scammers are, I have been here less than one month and have been marked by suspisious mail (you know the type, young and way to attractive in sexy poses, overly friendly) 22 times... how large is the population of men here? hard to tell, right? we know that this website claims 17 k women, but I would say oits a sure bet to start with a 1 to 1 ratio, let look at it at this way... a scamer shoots for 10O marks per day = 3000 men per moth assuming a success rate of 20% that is 600 preys that send 100 usd minimum fee that is 60.000 usd/mo x 12= 720K USD, close to amillion usd per year!!! this just on one girl, assuming that the 22 I was marked by were scammers, then we are taking about a biz that is over 10 Million USD per year, surely more than this website is probably invoicing.. makes you wonder right?
Where do you get ANY of your figures? Its a "sure bet" that thee is a 1 to 1 ration of women to men?!?!?! Based on WHAT? Imagination?
There is absolutely nothing here that suggest a 1 to 1 ratio to be a reliable estimation. That number must be drawn out of a HAT!
And a scammer shoots for 100 marks a day? What's that based on? And scammers never take a day off? (They work 30 days a month?) With all due respect, are you pulling those figures out of your butt?
And where do you get a 20% success rate? What reliable statistic do you have? I've done graduate work in marketing, and at one point was a market research analyst. I can tell you that a 1/2bert.
% to 1% success rate is considered remarkable for unsolicited mailers even among targeted mailing lists. Out and out scammers certainly face much smaller numbers.
Your estimations are ridiculously inflated. (Probably 100,000 to 1,000,000 times over reality).
(You aren't one of the guys who write the stock prospectus, with hyper inflated estimations of future earnings for some new issue, that I get in the mail everyday. Are you?)
Bert...why don't you spend your time working on the girls than trying to do your statistical analysis.
You and Apal like to crunch numbers...the only ones I crunch is 36-24-36 or as some might prefer, 5"8" and 119lbs.
While you were working on your 'numbers' someone just sweep your girl away.....who knows could have been me!!!
Jet- The scamming biz in FSU is something that the illicit drug market or legal gambling would love to put their hands into, lookin at the sites dedicated to this (and no I am not a researcher in the area) my figure of 10 M usd/yr is modest and conservative by any standard. You are again using a wrong base to make a statistical comparasion, in unsolicitated mailers you hit he numbers of the highest success rate, but, Jet those who come to this site are paying in a way to be marked!! Otherwise, how the hell can we be exposed to the fraud!! This ladies have the attributes and the influence tools to milk us out, for we are not into filter mode in here. I laugh at your 24/7 appreciation of the scam biz, hell, does a casino ever take a break!! or pornography for that matter? for 10 M usd a year, do you think I would take a day off!!! hell, my machinery would be well oiled
BTW- No I am not in the unsolicitaed mailing biz, but just looking at the figures here, I may start my own venezuelan bride website.
Beemer- Damn, it is you who is getting the good ones!!
Jet- Pigeon whole principle as starting point to the estimation of the number you said "I pulled out of a hat"- if you chop of the population of ladies in this site over 55 and those over 70 kg weight of any age, a random check of the remaining set would tell you that those ladies have been mailed at least 5 times, if you assume there were 5 different guys, then the ratio men:women would be 5:1 (kind of high)-- which population rotates the faster? Men or women? assume is men (a point in favor of the scammers).. before boring anyone, you an see hat the 1:1 is not an unreasonable starting point in this information hidden context.
But if you want some assurance, why not ask the moderator the actual figure of male members in this site? This is where you can get a distorsion factor, I would not want to be in a site where Beemer is always lurking for my girls while I do the number crunching (BTW. thanks beemer for your search criteria, I'll modify mine so as not to overlap).. so the distorsion might be: there is more girls than boys- I feel good because I think there is no more competition, other will begin joining in so it will become more saturated, if they say there are more guys than girls, heck, it is so crowded my dates are always before beemer, 1:1 woul be the perfect equilibrium-- another point, it its also the rate of men in/out that make the difference
Note: This thread objective was to estimate % women genuine I am just braistorimg my estimation logic
Get away from the idea of a one to one corelation of men to women on this site for a minute. The number is ridiculous - but its not really the point here.
Your definition of a scammer is bizarre. You define it as:
"We do not have enough information to estimate a precise figure on what the real numbers of scammers are, I have been here less than one month and have been marked by suspisious mail (you know the type, young and way to attractive in sexy poses, overly friendly) 22 times... "
So all a girl has to have is a sexy photograph or an over friendly letter. You say that 20% of the girls are like that and then you jump to each of them writing A HUNDRED LETTERS SCAM LETTERS A DAY! So EVERY GIRL WHO IS OVERLY FRIENDLYOR SEXY IS A SCAMMER WRITING 100 LETTERS PER DAY!
WOW - my girl had sexy poses up when she had a posted profile - By your definition she was a scammer and was writing 100 letters a day.
Not only that - but fully 20% of the time (20 letters per day) - each and every one of the 22 suspicious girls who wrote to you (and MY girl) - are getting guys to send them at least $100!
That means that one of those 22 girls (and mine) is writing 20 successful letters per day (20%) and netting $100 from each - so they are each making $2,000 PER DAY! (Your figures).
WOW - each of the 22 (and again mine) are clearing $60,000 per month! or $720,000 per year!
WOW - I guess I'm going to have to ask my girl - to start supporting me since she (and the 22 who wrote to you) are making nearly 3/4 of a MILLION dollars per year at this.
There ARE scammers out there (to be sure) - bu the vast majority of them are small time operators. There is no vast porn-like or drug-like empires. That is the stuff of wild imaginations and conspiracy thinking.
Unemplyment is high in the FSU. And a lot of jobs offer working conditions that none of us in the west would accept. Wages are low, around $150 to $200 a month.
No population is made up of 100% honest people and the FSU is no exception. Some internet savy people have figured out ways to get people to send them money for just a few sweet words. There are desperate western men who think with their small heads and FSU women who realize that fooling them is easier than working.
They don't NEED to may $730,000 per year. $200 to $300 per month would be just dandy. If a scammer can keep two or three guys on the hook - each sending $100 a month - she has it made. If they show up from time to time to give her gifts and to take her out for dinner, well so much the better.
But this foolish idea that there is a 20% success rate for blind letters. I get blind letters in my spam every day. Evidently, because I am involved with this, I am on the right spam lists. I bet I've received 5 thousand letters (spam) in the 4 years I've been doing this. And I've never sent a DOLLAR to any of them. According to your estimations, I should have sent $100 to 1,000 of them (20%) or $100,000 altogether. But I haven't.
Most spammers are small time operators - but thats all they need to be.
Problem is that so many of you guys are so suspicious. You're scared of your own shadows. You've cooked up every vast conspiracy theory that anyone could ever think of.
These girls are REAL - for the most part. And the fakes are often easy to pick out. (Do you guys fall for those ads on late night television as well, offering foreclosed mansions and Ferraris for $150?)
Use common sense and meet the girls. You should be fine.
jetmba has posted a real good post. Most FSU girls are real people...but there intentions to marry a western guy and leave there countries is unreal.
For most FSU women, they are happy where they are, they have great social networking with friends and family...its what the very core of their lives revolves around...living coditions in the FSU have improved from the Soviet era and turmoil of the nineties!
They see us as curiosity items and gullible idiots from the decadent West...real easy to make small amounts of money e.g for me to give $75 pro darts set to my former Krivoy Rog girl would have been like half months salary at work for her...like gold to her, small amounts to us like $100 as jet said is a big deal to them, if they get this out of a few men a month its like the ritch life for these poor girls.
To some extent you can't blame them...they work real hard,long hours for shit pay and conditions and the strong temptation exists to scam for easy money to improve there lives.
Most of us guys set ourselves up to be scammed...when it comes to women there is an endless supply of stupid, gullible guys...we have to pay for our education to learn here...some very dearly!
PS: I have never considered the $75 darts set to be a scam to my last Krivoy Rog girl...it was just not meant to be and she got it as a parting gift, it never worried me, she can enjoy it because I know she could not afford it on her salary, not Magnum pro 97% tungsten darts set which she could not obtain in K.R, they only sell the cheap brass sets there.
The plug was pulled based on 4 different negative reports on her, you can't continue with anyone when theres this large shadow of doubt about her integrity over her.
I also comfirmed it for myself, this was a real person...a real girl. Address and identity were confirmed by check.
For most part they are real girls and individual operators.
She was the last for me in this MOB saga...I quit not for being scammed ( this last episode was not a scam ), I quit because I had enough and woke up...I was deluding myself.
I get a laugh out of the occasional post that shows up, usually with little "tests" you can give the girl to verify if she is real or not. (the Monopoly post was priceless!) It's just so silly and such a pointless waste of time, not to mention insulting to the woman.
On the flip side I have to laugh (or at least shake my head sadly) at the guys who post their own personal scamming story, and you can see where they went wrong from a mile away. To be fair, I don't usually laugh because it is heart-breaking to see a guy who just wants to help someone out get taken for such a devastating ride. But jeez guys, wake the f*** up!
The fact is that it's extremely easy to separate the scammers from the real girls. Legitimate girls with legitimate agencies have been coached not to ask for money. Not to mention the average FSU woman is too proud to ask you for money even if she did need it. So if she asks you for money, move on. It's that simple. If she professes undying love and begs you to help pay for a heart operation for her entire family, move on.
Bottom line: You can't be scammed if you don't give them money. The real ones will not ask for money.
The monopoly test actually achieved its goal...she bit on that one...it was not meant to confirm her existence...this girl had a constant track record of not answering my questions in letters, she actually read the monopoly question which proved that she reads my letters sometimes but chooses not to be forthcoming in my questions ( only on monopoly question because it insulted her, I had to insult her intelligence to get any answers out of her!)...it was a further indication of a red flag and warning to me about her.
If they read your letters and don't choose to answer important questions theres a problem...this K.R girl was too secretive and not forthcoming...I was upfront and forthcoming but if the girl does not want to be it indicates no future with her!
The old scam reports I latter found on her put the nails in the coffin!
This K.R girl is a low level, quiet scam operator or not serious...you could not justify a personal visit for this one.
My point, aussie, is that you don't need these kinds of tests at all. If she's asking for money, she's a scammer. Period, end of story. Trying to make some kind of elaborate test just gums up the works and causes confusion for legitimate ladies.
If the lady is evading your questions, it's a red flag already. No further tests necessary. If she is a scammer she will eventually ask for money. That's the only test you need.