PS I don't know how reliable this is, but I have seen a couple of news reports claiming that Lavrov, Putin's Foreign Minister (apparently quite an intelligent and reasonable diplomat) shows signs of being uncomfortable, depending Russia's actions and the fantasized premises for them.
When a flight operates from point A to overfly a number of countries to arrive at point B the first thing it needs is permissions of departure and arrival countries and permissions to overfly the different countries on it's route.
With Northern Cyprus, there are no flights to/from there because they have been deemed illegal and, as a grey area, airport departure boards will show flights to Northern Cyprus except that the aircraft touches down in Turkey and taxies around again for take-off en-route to Northern Cyprus, direct flights to Northern Cyprus won't even be allowed to depart their departure airport nor would they be granted overflight permissions, Turkey is adjacent to Northern Cyprus so there are no overflight permissions applicable between the two.
So, if Crimea were to become another Northern Cyprus then it won't just a problem overflying Ukraine, it would be a problem departing and/or overflying any country that isn't in bed with the Russian Federation.
Flight permissions, much like visas, are a privilege, not a right, and may be refused or withdrawn at any time.
Martin, welcome back. I thought you might have been killed. It must have been a helluva storm huh? I am not talking about its destruction to Cebu and neighboring islands. I mean it knocked you out of the forum for 16 months. Now, that's a storm.
To revive an old conversation, you insisted and was pretty vocal that I and others are going to Ukraine as opposed to Russia because of them being visa free. You would not even entertain other reasons. It is a pain in the butt, but not a big deal to fill out that Russian visa form and pay their fees. My main problem was that one day, the US and Russia will clash. That day has come.
I would suggest that a conflict of interests has arisen. Of the many Ukrainians I knew they all wanted, every one of them, closer ties with the EU and all hoped that one day Ukraine would become part of the EU giving them rights to live and work in any country in the EU.
As a side issue I've had some Lithuanian guests staying recently and they told me that 10% of the population of Lithuanians now live in UK!
But the conflict of interest arises because Russia doesn't want that to happen, Russia wants to keep Ukraine as a subordinate to itself so Ukraine finds itself in the situation it is in now, If any east/west nations are clashing I'd suggest it is the Russian Federation and the European Union.
So Russia has done something naughty, of course you live in USA so you're watching and reading "Obama, Obama, Obama" and, true, perhaps USA/Obama feel they have more might to discipline Russia because USA is a superpower.
If I want to know what's happening I log on to the (British) BBC website, who do you think I'm reading about, "Obama, Obama, Obama" or "UK and the European Union"? I'd suggest that the combined countries of the EU have as much, if not more, might to discipline Russia than perhaps USA.
So the only clash at the moment is between Russia and Ukraine and whether one opts to date ladies in either of these two countries one may find things becoming more difficult, the fact that the likes of Obama and the European Union are addressing Putin to tell him to act more reasonably can only be considered a "clash" at this stage by one(s) looking for lamebrain excuse(s).
And as for any storms, what the hell are you talking about?
Cebu hasn't had a storm of any significance and most certainly hasn't been "destructed", the super typhoon of November 2013 gave this island one hell of a "lovebite" on it's way past before it wiped out Tacloban City etc. During this January alone this island suffered a typhoon followed by a tropical depression followed by a tropical storm, it just wouldn't stop bl00dy raining but no storm has knocked me out of this forum.
Besides the fact that I've got better things to do running my successful business here it came to a point that I felt I had nothing further to offer to this forum, I haven't been to FSU for quite a number of years now, and I compare it to standing on a street corner and being asked for directions, eventually one gets fed up standing on that same street corner giving out the same directions time after time after time and I'm only back here on a temporary basis and only because of this developing situation in Ukraine, something I have a personal interest in being both ex UK military and ex FSU traveller.
And as for the rest of your tittle tattle ... address it to somebody who might actually give a sh1t!
Interesting reporting about situation in Crimea from Vice News:
and the latest:
We'll see what happens with the referendum on March 16. Now that there are only 2 choices( with no 'no' choice)seems staying with Ukraine is not part of equation. Does seem many folks in Crimea want to be associated with Russia.
From efforts to discover how Russia decided its recent actions, a picture is emerging that Putin has been reacting rather impulsively from emotion, rather than carefully planning and thinking things through. Quote from the article:
"The decision to invade Crimea, the officials and analysts said, was made not by the national security council but in secret among a smaller and shrinking circle of Mr. Putinís closest and most trusted aides. The group excluded senior officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the cadre of comparatively liberal advisers who might have foreseen the economic impact and potential consequences of American and European sanctions."
As I wrote before about Kaiser William II, there's a reason why most states rely on professional diplomats to form foreign policy. For the head of state to bypass them is risky business.
Putin has actually put himself in an awkward corner: as far as I can work things out (as you guys may have guessed, I'm spending a lot of time trying to understand the situation), every possible move he can make from here is likely to have substantial costs. He'll have to decide how much he wants to pay, and how soon to pay it.
Some have depicted Putin as a ruler who governs like a chess player. That image is corroding.
If the Crimean vote goes to complete independence from Ukraine (as most people seem to be predicting), and the Kremlin endorses this secession, then interesting questions will arise.
(1) If the Tatars of Crimea (many of whom live not far from Sevastopol, and who are intensely opposed to living under the Russian boot-heel) demand a referendum on making their majority-population areas independent of Crimea (no doubt, with the intention of seeking Ukraine's protection), how will Russia explain its refusal?
(2) Majority Turkic areas of Russia -- especially Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia who have long struggled for independence -- can be expected to immediately demand referenda on secession, and that Russia must honor the voting results. What's good for the goose, after all, is good for the gander.
(3) This is much more speculative, but still fascinating: the Sakha Republic and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug in Siberia's northeast already have a partly autonomous status, with their own historical languages and cultures. In Chukotka, ethnic Russians are a bare majority; in Sakha, they are a large minority (they are very sparsely settled, so the populations are small). What if they demanded referenda on secession? Between the two territories, their territorial waters (if they became new states, or merged to form one new state) would comprise an enormous proportion of Russia's petroleum reserves. I'm sure that some nice foreign oil companies would be happy to invest tens of billions of dollars to help them set up their own organs of government, military and the like. Why should they allow Russian thieves to continue to loot the natural resources which are theirs by birthright? I think even the Russian citizens could be convinced to vote for secession: every single person would become an instant lottery winner on independence.
Note that these attacks on Russia's integrity are opened EVEN IF RUSSIA DOESN'T ANNEX CRIMEA: simple endorsement or recognition of secession, is all that's needed.
Of course, Putin's Russia will fiercely resist all of these scenarios. And when it does so, Russian deceit in claiming some "principle" will be exposed so that all can see it. Of course, the West already sees this deceit, but Russia's citizens and friends may find it a bit uncomfortable.
Well the west, in this case the "boomerang" seems particularly targeted at USA, did without Russian Federation/USSR trade through all the years of the Cold War and more so I'm sure it can do without them again.
Meanwhile the Russian Federation makes a bucket load of money exporting oil and gas so if Russian exports were banned I'd take a guess it would hurt Russia significantly more than it would hurt USA and/or the EU.
One thing that Russia has us over a barrel for, is the fact that we have a lot of heavy equipment in Afghanistan yet,,, and it was supposed to be hauled out thru Russia. We have a small force standing guard over it,,, and is probably vulnerable to attack and then the equipment could fall into the hands of our enemies.
Russia doesn't have a land border anywhere near to Afganistan, can always sabotage said heavy equipment to prevent it's use by referred to enemies of fly it out in such aircraft as C-5's or, in the event they're not big enough then I'm sure the Ukrainians would be happy to help out with their, An-225.
There were reasons at the time that they couldn't load the equipment onto planes, and couldn't go south with it. They needed Russian cooperation for the move. I heard this about two weeks ago, and it had something to do with not being able to bring all of the troops home.
Once you argue the validity of the occupation you have lost the argument. There is only one reason for this action,,,, control. The words are a complete lie. The status of Ukraine and Crimea 5 years ago was the best option for them. The only prosperous future for Ukraine is as Kiev the capital and trade with Russia and Europe. It is what is best for Russia too, but the leaders are greedy and the proletariat that believes that vodka will flow in the fountains is blind. The whole world has the same sickness. The world is getting ready for another blood letting.
Hey, did you all notice, Justin and Selina are back together.............