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	Create New Topic   My Posts   My forum buddies   Invite friends   Private messages Russian brides > Main Forum > Economic Situation Author Post Valiant Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/4/2009 7:59:47 PM   Hi! I am new here. I would like to ask to the people who have visited recently or live in Ukraine, what´s the financial situation like nowadays in the country. Obviously I read in the Western Press that the situation is almost of meltdown, but I would like to know the impression of people in fact on the ground. Regards Valiant bowhunter Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/4/2009 9:23:51 PM   from what I have seen quite a few places have closed but not a lot. Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 6:11:48 AM   Good lord – were does one start ???? My wife and I have been in Kiev this last 5 weeks but live in New Zealand. I have been coming here since 2003 an have had four 2 month stays this last 5 years, so am getting a pretty good handle on things. Even getting confident enough to buy a car next trip. Another reason for buying next year – they will be very cheap by the looks of what’s happening now !!! Even in this last 5 weeks we have seen progress in the wrong direction – Kiosk’s uprooted and market type shops cleaned out over night and gone. Sales – bloody hell – never seen sales before on cloths/footwear/fashion items etc so huge and temping. Retail shops are shutting (approx 30% will be gone by winter) and those still in business have sales - some with up to 90% off but 60 and 70% sales are common. A lot of consumer imports have ceased and shops to restocking a lot of items. It almost appears that nearly every holiday home/Dacha is on the market and alot partly built and not finished for obvious reasons are for sale with urgent intent. The Apartment market could be back by 40 - 50% already. Apartment developments are all but stopped. We have 4 half finished octagon shaped ones just across the road from our (M-in-laws) apartment block. In centre and other suburbs have many the same - half built and stopped. So it’s a bit of a mess here and Ukraine is starting to really hurt from the crisis. The word crisis is in every conversation I witness - I think our trip back next year will be an eye opener - one web site alone has 270,000 second hand cars for sale, most are 2005 and newer too. The banks lent people 100% with 7 years to repay at approx 16%. People borrowed on their apartment (most of which were literally handed to them when the soviet collapsed) and they felt rich because an average Kiev apartment was suddenly worth 200K+ and now the local currency is back approx 40% on US and Euro, they are really struggling to repay at Western currency based on their local currency earnings - and of course their apartments are probably worth 50% of this time last year It appears from what I can read/see - the Ukraine IMF money that has come in thus far (almost 10Billion) is mostly getting used to support the Hryvnia (UAH) their currency. I honestly dread to think what it’s going to do after the IMF money runs out or after Election (01/10) which ever come 1st – I think the former !!!! To give an example of local government support – last week the UAH started to lose ground and got to 8.15 against the US$ and 11.45 against the EURO – every other currency in the world was appreciating against the US$. Against the NZ$ via ATM it was approx 4.95 – 5.02 that same week. Another IMF payment came in last week (approx 3Billion) and sure enough the UAH started firming again and yesterday was at 7.7UAH per 1 US$ - 11.05per 1 Euro - BUT – the Kiwi was converting to 5.29UAH per 1 NZ$. I know the US$ lost ground against ours and the Euro etc – but the ratio doesn’t stack up. The word is - the National Ukraine Bank (like our Reserve Bank) is pumping in 10’s of million per day to stop the UAH falling through the floor ?????????? Other FSU countries and Baltic countries, especially Latvia, are on their knees. It's less corrupt there, but the credit feast was a lot bigger than in the Ukraine. Latvia is much closer to a state failure than the Ukraine from what I understand. Plenty of unfinished residential properties on the market, just like in the Ukraine. Plenty of empty commercial real estate, rents there down by a factor of 3 or so. Ukraine GDP -20.3% Q1 2009 - Latvian GDP was -18% 1Q 2009 - Lithuania -22.4% Q2 2009 and Estonia -15.1% Q1 2009.. Bulgaria and Romania, as well as Hungary are all on life-support. Hungary was close to default last autumn, I predict Ukraine will be in default mid winter – I pray I am wrong !!! Swiss Banks and other West Europe Banks lent large amounts into Kiev/Ukraine and the above mentioned countries. They said that if they put too much pressure on to recover, they stand to lose the lot. So perhaps that may save the day a little for the likes of Ukraine etc The likes of the Steel industry here, will benefit soon from the upswing in commodities - BUT - I can’t see that making a much difference to the average borrower here that borrowed against earnings that wouldn't even get you in the Bank door back home. Ukraine will have a lot of corporate defaults later this year as even the state owned Naftagaz is in for a bail-out situation to pay its Eurobond this month, and that will further increase delinquencies in the mortgage/consumer loans sectors. People have already lost Deposits in local Ukraine Banks. The PM is grandstanding now and just supported (or maybe Nationalised) the Rodovid Bank on Monday – and some depositors started getting their money out. She is blaming the last PM for this problem and some others are blaming Russia – can’t quite work that one out but ??? The PM (Yulia the one that looks 30 but is nearly 50 and has the rope hair style) went to Korea last week and came back with financial support but it cost Ukraine a contract to rebuild Trains for the aging FSU ones that have been chunking along the tracks of late. So that’s good for the country when they are out sourcing projects of that magnitude – which are more than capable of building themselves and keeping the work/income internal. But she only thinks of No1 – herself !!!!!!!!!! Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 6:12:21 AM   It’s very different here though – to give another example of business stupidness, we were talking to shop owner in a large Mall, and the conversation got onto “the crisis” I asked how much was her rental for the space she was using (she was in the centre walk way – not a separate shop) and she said 13,000UAH per month – “Christ I said, that’s high, I imagine the rates will be dropping because of the closures going on around you” she replied – no – in fact I pay monthly as I am on a monthly term and they keep increasing it every month. I said “but that’s crazy they should be dropping it to try and keep you and other retail sales people here” she said “no – they don’t think like that, they want to take as much as they can whilst they still can” – so – go figure !!!!!!!! That’s just one of many examples I could quote to illustrate the bazaar business ethics of this place. So it’s probably going to be a very long drag in this country before things will get anywhere near what they briefly had 2000 – 2007. They had better hope that the US and Russia don’t get to Pelly, because as it stands the US might support Ukraine for the purpose of keeping Russia at bay. God forbid if Georgia starts playing silly beggars’ again and these idiots support them, if that happens we might see this FSU zone back under total Kremlin rule/control again. A lot here would probably be better off if they were and a lot still say that today, that they would be better off that way ??????????????   Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 6:19:42 AM   This just in from BBC news The global financial crisis and political turmoil in Ukraine is causing a breakdown in the country's healthcare system. Patients who cannot afford to pay for their treatment and medication are the most vulnerable. Gabriel Gatehouse reports from Kiev. Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 6:30:36 AM   Meant to add The Health budget fund is missing 75% of what it had for the corresponding timeframe of this time last year for local health care (free care) There are more examples like this - money is getting siphoned off for other expenses, a lot getting absorbed in Personal election campaigning by way of buying votes and looking good on TV supporting the likes of this week’s Bank bailout cost = 2.8billion UAH bowhunter Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 8:42:52 AM   I was told apartment prices have dropped 50 percent and are expected to drop 30 more this year. I think I might buy one or two. Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 10:23:25 AM   Yes - some have mentioned back 90% on peak prices !!! I good 2 room (42 - 55m2)apartment with some westernisation to interior etc (but not upmarket) will cost in residential Zone - Kiev 60 - 90k at moment. Will rent for approx 4500UAH (550US$) per month. so even at today’s prices - and I am sure they will tank alot further yet - that’s an approx 7 - 11% return on capital outlay. The M-Inlaw just said today - don’t spend your money in Ukraine, you might as well flush it down the toilet !!!! She may be right ??? 7 x earnings = max buy price in my book. So if an average wage here is say 300 Per month = 3600pa X 7 = $25000US$ for a average apartment !!! That don’t look good does it !!!!!!! Who would know what the average wage is here. 90% of them only declare a low % of what they actually earn bowhunter Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 10:32:12 AM   I always wondered how accurate the wage estimates are most work for cash. I guess now I know why most places want exact change or wont even have a register to ring sales on. Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 10:46:36 AM   There are a lot of good points here compared to home though We just paid to renew the M-In-laws taps in kitchen and bathroom. Plumber guy took her down to market this morning and she paid for both tap sets 420UAH and 710UAH and then dropped her home. Arrived this afternoon and fitted both sets and charged her 120UAH Total cost = 1250UAH (150US$) that would have cost at least 750NZ$ at home and the tap quality wouldn’t have been Italian !!!!! Living cost are not great here – food has gone up a lot but it still way cheaper than at home and the variety is much greater. Cloths are at Asian prices but Euro quality. Housing for most is nearly zero cost (approx 200UAH per month) So as long as you haven’t got big loans around your neck it won’t be too hard to hang in here. But it’s the elderly that I feel for. They are screwed if they have not secondary income like a rental. They live like flies – on very little. I am looking at a Dacha on the Dnepr river – approx 10mins further down river from the last big bridge and Metro line crossing the Dnepr. Has a Banya and guest house about the size of our house at home and the main house is 400m2+ all new 2007. Fully security fenced with brick wall and real upmarket fittings etc, price is down to 320KUS$ - that will probably end up selling for mid 200’s max. I won’t even try to guess its building cost back home ??? The brick wall around it would cost 100K + at home !!!! Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 10:54:23 AM   I have buggared my ankle and are apartment bound - really pissin me off too - so for those of you thinking I writen to much - tuff - got FA else to do :-) Walking to hard to even go down and perv on the river bank - I said bank - you sick SOB"s ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 9:23:21 PM   When the Soviet Union collapsed, were the apartments "literally handed to them" or did they have to pay the government? The woman from Zaporozhye told me she was paying the government, but not monthly. She went to the Sea of Asov to work for the summer and paid the government $1,000 USD a month for three months out of the year. If it "literally handed to them", does that mean she borrowed from her equity? Mini Cooper Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/5/2009 11:06:46 PM   ragingbull, What I was told by my "former" Russian wife was all people that were occupying an apartment when the collapse occured.... were give the opportunity to "claim" ownership of their apartment where they had been living. They were required to show some form of proof that they lived there. For my ex-wife's father all it took was a letter from his neighbor in the next apartment to grant him ownership of his apartment. ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/6/2009 12:46:42 AM   Thanks Coop. That answers some questions - how she may have gotten a big screen TV, digital camera, computer. I asked her once how she painted her cupboards. She said she bought the whole thing painted, from the loan. Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/6/2009 2:46:05 AM   Yes - MC is correct. On their National Passport is the connection to the apartment, official stamp. When the collapse happened - some paid a nominal fee/amount/a very small amount, others like my Wife’s parents whose father was in military paid zero But even after the collapse some Govt employees still got access to apartments at next to nothing amount. This all stopped when property started becoming more expensive. Some of the new apartment blocks that were built even as late as approx 2003, had been discounted for the likes of Govt employees - maybe 20k pay instead of a private worker paying 45k. RB The only amount that is paid on apartments now is local rates – covers rubbish collection/cleaning/grounds/maintenance/water/gas/electricity – that is paid to the local council admin – not the Govt. The lady you mention could have done a purchase via her work if she did work for Govt to get into an apartment – but I would think that would have to be pre 2003 – but I am not a 100% sure on that date If not - she is paying that to a Bank or private loan company for the purchase of apartment or as you suspect house items Valiant Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/6/2009 8:09:50 PM   Thanks all for the reply! Maxirat Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/11/2009 3:39:06 AM   Hryvnia (UAH) Ukraine currency loosing ground again. Getting 5.44UAH against our New Zealand $$ today Over 8.1 at the Kiosk exchange booths again - could go higher real soon ??? ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/11/2009 11:51:44 PM   Maxirat, thanks also for your reply. News from the internet is usually national and not local news. ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 8/21/2009 9:07:58 PM   I see that the inflation rate of Ukraine was 15.5% in July as compared to a year ago. The GDP is expected to shrink at 8% for the year. Goods and services shrinking and prices going up.... not good. ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 5/1/2010 4:15:19 PM   Update, please? Your Reply: Your name:   New Registration Password:   Forgot password?   refresh Code:   Russian brides > Main Forum > Economic Situation
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