The lack of frankness and public debate in Russia on these and other fundamental
issues makes it clear that 'glasnost', 'democratisation', the removal of statues and the
alleged abolition of the Communist Party are nothing more than cosmetic changes.
Without free and open debates, genuine opposition cannot emerge and supplant the
present pseudo-opposition. Unexposed as the true heirs of Communism which they
are, the Soviet strategists remain at the helm and continue to mesmerise the West into
supporting them. In fact no long-term good can realistically be expected from the
present system. When its economic situation has improved, Russia can be expected
to revert to hostility towards the West: Western belief in the collapse of Communism
will be shown to be an illusion.
The Soviet strategists have reformed their system, introduced their own type
of pseudo-democracy and made changes in their economy. They have replaced the
outdated and discredited domination of the Communist Party with a new, controlled
mass political structure. In so doing they have retained the same political elite,
In the past, when the USSR was perceived to be a monolith and Soviet parliamentary
institutions could be seen to be mere rubber-stamps, Soviet negotiating tactics
vis-a-vis the Western countries were more or less understood. Now they are not. The
introduction of a controlled political opposition and the new structure of the CIS with
its so-called 'independent' states like Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus, provide many
new openings for bolstering Russian negotiating positions through disinformation.
Russian negotiators have the edge over their American counterparts because their
moves are planned on the basis of a political strategy and deceptive negotiating
techniques which the Americans do not understand.
The Bush Administration, with its eye on history, rushed the final stages of
the negotiations for the recent nuclear missile treaty which had been deliberately
dragged out by the Russians until near the end of the Administration's life. Ignorant of
long-term Russian intentions, the Administration put its trust in Yeltsin and,
according to 'senior Administration officials', made significant concessions. These
concessions were made 'to help Yeltsin defend the treaty against criticism' in the mistaken
belief that he was under pressure from 'conservatives', as a Western politician
might have been. In fact, since the 'conservative opposition' is coordinated through the
political elite with Yeltsin and his strategists, its activities can be stepped up or down
to suit the needs of the Russian negotiators. Similarly, alleged difficulties in the
Ukrainian or other parliaments can be used to accelerate or delay ratification and
wring further concessions out of the Americans. By signing the treaty with the outgoing
US Administration, the Russians established a basis for pressing the new Administration
to carry the process further and faster.
The United States does not understand the real nature of relations between
the Russian and Communist Chinese leaders. Washington believes that a genuine
improvement took place in relations in the 1980s between the Chinese and Gorbachev
and Yeltsin. I see these contacts as evidence that 'perestroika' in Russia did not
take the Chinese by surprise, that they have a complete understanding of the realities
behind it and that their strategic cooperation with the Russians continues as it has
done since the late 1950s though now with open acknowledgement of their good
relations. The United States views the Russian sale of complete factories and new
weapons systems to the Chinese as dictated by Russian desire to ease their current
economic difficulties. To my way of thinking it amounts to the deliberate transfer of
advanced technology to an old and trusted ally.