All indications are Crimea is a loser for Russia. They plan it to be a center for international trade. Who would trade there? Business does not operate on fear and uncertainty. International investors and consumers will shun it. Russia can only gain international favor back by giving back Crimea. http://goo.gl/5Xe0Tu
Obviously, many would prefer to forget Russia's brutal and clearly illegal theft of Ukrainian territory (to those who believe this is some kind of a "gray area" in international law: you are dead wrong).
Putin has many apologists around the world who say, "Crimeans wanted their land to become Russian," and "the land was historically Russian," along with other mumbled excuses. Well, the majority of Crimeans almost certainly did NOT want a Russian takeover (yes, there is data to support this), despite what a crooked gun-point "referendum" purports to have said. And almost every human being alive today lives on territory that historically belonged to somebody else, often within living memory: GET OVER IT.
Also, at least one person on this forum believes the Putin propaganda that people in Crimea were in some kind of "danger" from the Kyiv "coup". That is not even microscopically factual, but even if it were, even a child can see that the supposedly endangered "Russians" in Crimea could have been "protected" without annexation.
When _legitimate_ questions arise concerning borders and self-determination, the international community has strong and well-established mechanisms, where problems can be LAWFULLY resolved*. Russia never attempted any of them.
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rb and I DON'T forget Russia's crime. Some other people seem not to be forgetting:
“Bigger nations must not be allowed to bully the small, or impose their will at the barrel of a gun or with masked men taking over buildings. And the stroke of a pen can never legitimize the theft of a neighbor’s land. So we will not accept Russia’s occupation of Crimea or its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.” -- US President Obama, who correctly said "never"
“Russia occupied Crimea, which was, is and will be Ukrainian soil. Yesterday, in the course of the meeting in Normandy, I told this to President Putin: Crimea is Ukraine soil. Period. There can be no compromise on the issues of Crimea, European choice and state structure.” -- Ukraine President Poroshenko
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rb, your big point is a really important one. Russia needs Crimea to be part of its territory in the same way that a fish needs a bicycle.
I can't imagine Putin letting go of Crimea, because this theft is now an expression of his masculinity.
But imagine that tomorrow, Mr Putin goes for a walk and a grand piano were to tragically fall on him, and Russia's government were controlled by someone less concerned with machismo.
The annexation of Crimea could be quickly reversed with some face-saving maneuvers. This would be very gratefully embraced by the entire West, which understands that respect for international law is what keeps the horrors of mass warfare from our door. It would be celebrated by all of the other former Soviet countries, especially Russia's closest allies, Belarus and Kazakhstan, who hate to see Russia use a dagger that can quickly be turned against THEM.
The economic sanctions would fall away, and Russia would immediately see a meteoric rise in its markets and in international investment (Russia desperately needs foreign capital). Russia's GDP outlook would change from 3 years of projected stagnation (literally, 0% growth, which is really hard news for Russia's backward economy) to a reasonable growth rate.
Even though some would feel betrayed by such a reversal on Russia's part, its international prestige would on balance be greatly enhanced.
Russia could gain so much, by giving so little -- but one vicious gangster blocks the way.
* I accept the objection that these international mechanisms have been very inadequate to cases of genocide -- but nothing even remotely like that has ever occurred in independent Ukraine.
The occupation of Crimea will become pig in a poke to Russia. When the cost of distribution of food and resources becomes evident to the average Russian, they will become angry and soon the people in Crimea will be as neglected and forgotten as the Cubans.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ryan-rappa/what-really-motivated-rus_b_5473963.htm l
---"In sum, following the money is key to understanding this situation and discerning Russia's modus operandi. Russia took Crimea because it was a hugely profitable proposition, with little chance of any blowback beyond sanctions. "--
Many other articles on the net, points out this not just about the Russian Black Sea Fleet but also untapped gas reserves near Crimea.
The EU had Bulgaria hold construction on the South Stream pipeline.
So, what are we fighting for? democracy, oil , gas!!! Must be, Gas! Since Syria and Iraq are getting control by terrorist. $17 Billion+ 4500 of my buddies wasted for oil and democracy!!! Hummm!
Putin has what he wanted from Crimea, The ports that have the Chinese ships waiting for Russian gas and oil. The naval base is not the only port that can handle cargo. Russia also took over a pumping station just north of Crimea before trying to take over the other industrial city's.
“Bigger nations must not be allowed to bully the small, or impose their will at the barrel of a gun or with masked men taking over buildings. And the stroke of a pen can never legitimize the theft of a neighbor’s land. So we will not accept Russia’s occupation of Crimea or its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.” -- US President Obama, who correctly said "never"
Thanks for that, durak. The world is looking to him for leadership and his position on this is hardly ever mentioned. I do not believe he cares one way or the other about Crimea. All he wants is stability. When he sent Secretary Kerry to Geneva, Kerry said they (we) are open to dialogue about making Eastern Ukraine an independent state.
While his tactics appear to be working, he doesn't have a goal in place for normalizing relations with Russia. I did not realize he made a speech in Poland. This was his strongest speech that I have seen so far. I don't believe he has gone far enough. He should tell the Russians to give back Crimea.
Oz John, that article is misleading. The headline and the first few paragraph says Chinese company plans to build a $10 billion port in Crimea. Then, it went on to say why it may not happen.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ryan-rappa/what-really-motivated-rus_b_5473963.htm l
"In sum, following the money is key to understanding this situation and discerning Russia's modus operandi. Russia took Crimea because it was a hugely profitable proposition, with little chance of any blowback beyond sanctions."
The EU had convinced Bulgaria to stop works on the South Stream gas pipeline.
An all out war to free Crimea is unlikely. But we might see when Crimea revolts against Mother Russia in favor of returning to Ukraine or independence.
Months ago,, I saw a map or chart of all the gas pipelines in and around Ukraine,,, it looked like a can of worms! Just how vulnerable would these pipelines be,,,, and how would the west react to Ukraine blowing them up???
Ragingbull it saying that the project might blowout to $50 billion the way the Crimea and Russia are now. plus Russia is giving them a special economic zone to build there.
lonely the charts might look like a can of worms. but Russia has made sure that their is a direct gas pipeline from St petersburg to Germany. Germany only care about the gas flowing into their country.
"While world leaders were busy fretting over Iraq, Russia has moved to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine — a move Western leaders were dreading just months ago.
The move could impact the rest of Europe if nothing is done to resolve the crisis. The continent gets about one-third of its natural from Russia — about 16 percent of the gas consumed by Europeans travels through Ukraine.
Ukraine says it has enough gas reserves to last until December, but after that it will be forced to come back to the negotiating table with Russia. The country has been ravaged by civil strife that has warped into rebellion in the pro-Russian eastern part of the country.
Russian officials have said this is a business negotiation, not a political one. Ukraine owes its former Soviet masters about $4.5 billion in past due payments for natural gas. Russia had previously sold Ukraine discounted gas, but after the country’s pro-Russian government was toppled earlier this year Russia began to demand the money it was owed.
Over the weekend, as news reports came out that Ukrainian rebels were being aided by Russian tanks and heavy weaponry, the two countries were unable to reach an agreement over natural gas payments. Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy giant, is now demanding Ukraine pay upfront for its gas.
“Ukraine will get as much gas as it pays for,” Alexei Miller, the CEO of Gazprom, said Monday. “The risks to the (gas) transit are there and they’re significant.”
Russia has been trying to pummel Ukraine into submission by increasing the country’s energy costs and slapping sanctions on their exports. In March, Russia virtually doubled the price Ukraine pays for gas by getting rid of its energy discounts. This raised the price Ukraine pays for gas by 80 percent.
Ukraine gets about half its gas supply from Russia and about half the Russian gas flowing into Europe comes through Ukraine, meaning cutting off gas supplies could heavily impact the rest of continent if no deal is reached.
Russia also announced Monday that it would block imports of agricultural goods from Ukraine, a huge blow to the agrarian eastern European economy.
“We won’t subsidize Gazprom,” said Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. “Ukrainians will not take $5 billion per year (out of their pockets) to let Russia spend this money on weapons, tanks and planes to bomb Ukrainian territory.”
Ukraine's foreign minister caused a diplomatic row with Russia on Sunday after nonchalantly referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin as the equivalent of a "dickhead."
Nope, not been to Ukraine for years, I'd have to check my passport for the last time I was there.
Currently in to my third year in the Philippines, for immigration purposes I needed to leave Philippines once every 16 months so I went to Hong Kong for 2 hours and 40 minutes during October 2012 but more recently they have changed the rules and I can stay in Philippines for up to 3 years (extendable) before I need to leave the country.
The business I have developed here celebrated it's first birthday on 01 June, the first year being a year of trial and error but a successful year overall, read about us on Trip Advisor or just Google us.
"Give Back Crimea" is a term that is hardly out there in the media. While it may not work in the short run, it would certainly be a good start for the Obama administration to tell Russia. Russian oil needs western technology in a big way. Taking that away and putting giving back Crimea as a condition would be interesting.
http://goo.gl/hnDIcu
I wouldn't hold my breath. Did Obama even respond to those tanks crossing into Ukraine?
"The United Nations refugee agency has reported that more than 34,000 Ukrainians have been displaced. Most were from Crimea, where people who speak Ukrainian or do not want to change their nationality to Russian face discrimination and intimidation, Mr. Magazzeni said."
Magazzeni is identified in the article as a senior human rights official at the UN.
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It's also interesting to note that in recent weeks, it has been nearly impossible to use an ATM in Crimea. The Ukrainian banks left, or have been shut down by the Russian government. Most Russian banks are reportedly scared of doing business in Crimea, because it would expose then to western sanctions.
Like I wrote, it's a "pig in a poke". There are so many infrastructure modifications needed to coordinate with Russia and no one will go there because traveling through Ukraine by train was the only viable way for most people that consider it for a destination. When money is spent to try to make it viable, the people in Russia will become angry. It is why it is Ukrainian, not Russian, Turkish or hysterically the 51st American State.
Ukraine cannot normalize relations with Russia without return of Crimea, says Poroshenko
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said that the talks with Russia are aimed at achieving peace in Ukraine, but bilateral relations cannot be normalized unless Crimea is returned.
"Our relations cannot be normalized without the return of Crimea. But we are peaceful people. And so the Ukrainian authorities, and I, as president, have offered a peace plan," he said at a session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in Strasbourg on Thursday.
Poroshenko said that on Wednesday during a telephone talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin expressed his support for the Ukrainian president's peace plan.
However, Kyiv expects such support in deeds, not just in words, Poroshenko said.
"We are waiting for such actions. Step up the border protection, put an end to the illegal flow of equipment, stop recruiting mercenaries and lastly, withdraw the troops," the Ukrainian president said.