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	Create New Topic   My Posts   My forum buddies   Invite friends   Private messages Russian brides > Main Forum > Economic Consequences of the War Author Post durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/17/2015 2:34:41 PM   PS TO OOPS PART 2 If you are interested in see the Moody's rationale for the downgrade, which goes into some detail, check out: http://goo.gl/7Zi1c5 One highlight: Moody's projects Russia spending the next two years in recession (shrinking GDP), "bringing real growth over the 10 years through 2018 to virtually zero". Did you get that, boys? Adjusting for inflation, the forecast is that Russia's economy in 2018 will be the same size as it was in 2009. Moody's expects that in 2018, Russia's economy will be the same size as it was in 2008. MartinPC Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 5:42:45 AM   For shoppers like pensioner Tatiana Ivanovna buying their weekly groceries in a Moscow supermarket, these are increasingly tough times. Fuelled by a double whammy of a plummeting ruble and the embargoes Russia slapped on many Western products in retaliation for sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, inflation is soaring. Prices on meat, fish and vegetables rose by some 20 percent last year, according to official figures, and Russian staples like cabbage have gone up in recent weeks. But, despite the steep hikes, the rising cost of living is not yet translating into panic for consumers. "Prices are going up, but just a bit at a time and that helps us to accept it," Ivanovna told AFP "We have survived so much before, we know all will turn out fine," she said. "We are strong and we understand how to cope with difficulties -- it is in our blood." Muscovite Natalia says she does not miss the French cheeses or Italian salads that are now banned from stores in Russia. "There is still bread and butter and that is what is important!" she said. "Average people never had much money and they won't have it now. With or without inflation we manage to get by." She admits, however, that the price of sugar -- set to be raised steeply by major stores soon after already climbing 40 percent last year -- is starting to cause her some concern. A poll released Friday said more than 70 percent of those surveyed would vote for leader Vladimir Putin if presidential polls were held now, local media reported. "The majority of the population has realised that the situation is deteriorating and that the confrontation with the West is costing them dear," said Nikolai Petrov, a professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics. "But this is not translating yet into discontent with those in power." That, however, may just be a matter of time as the surge in patriotism generated from Russia's seizure of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in March could wane. "We are only just at the start of the process -- the growth in prices, utility prices and public transport," Petrov said. "But it will take some three to four months before this starts to tell on public opinion." The economic crisis in Russia looks set to last for a while. JonEwad Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 9:18:44 AM   Crimea, second highest inflation rate in the world. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2015-01-15/crimeas-inf lation-is-second-highest-in-the-world durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 6:58:26 PM   Thanks, Martin and JonE for useful posts about the punishing inflation rates in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine. [Note to the ignorant: Crimea has been Ukrainian territory for generations, remains Ukrainian territory today, and will continue to be Ukrainian territory for the foreseeable future.] The "pro-Russians" in Crimea, who were so eager to commit treason against Ukraine, were enticed by promises of higher pensions and salaries for government employees -- a little bribe from Moscow. As the businessweek article notes (edit out the space in the word "inflation" if you want to use the link), price increases in Crimea have (for the present, at least) effectively wiped out their pension or pay raises. Those traitors in Crimea chose to surrender: * their honor * their right to participate in open and free elections * their right to change their mind (if they ever decide in the future that they want to be truly independent, or to rejoin Ukraine, Russia will throw them in prison simply for speaking about it: advocating separatism is a crime under Russian law) * numerous other civil rights * their vital tourism industry and much else besides. Their present misery is a just dessert for treason. But only about half of Crimea's population supported joining Russia. The other half are innocent victims of this wickedness. Well, traitors, in exchange for all the treasures you have thrown into the rubbish bin, you have your "Russian pride". Was it worth it? durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 7:10:33 PM   MORE ON CREDIT DOWNGRADES I recently posted about Fitch and Moody's downgrading Russia's sovereign debt to one notch above "junk," which is actually nine steps below top creditworthiness. Standard & Poor actually was the first of the three (these 3 firms are the world's primary rating organizations for non-consumer credit). And any day now, S&P is expected to review Russia again. The next likely step is an S&P downgrade to junk. If one of the other two companies follows suit, Russia will have some price to pay. Many investment funds have rules that forbid the purchase of junk bonds. If two of the three big rating agencies downgrade bonds to junk, such funds are automatically forbidden to buy the bonds, and may also be required to sell off what they are presently holding. This is important to Russia, because the present sanctions regime by the West has greatly reduced Russia's access to foreign capital. At the same time, Russian capital, which has never been sufficient to meet the needs of Russian businesses, is being sent out of the country just as fast as the wealthy can export it (essentially, Russians are buying foreign securities and real estate to the extent they are able). Russia's credit rating dropping to junk will even further strangle access to foreign investment. Russian economists have estimated that the cost of reaching junk status to Russia will be between 20 and 30 billion dollars. MartinPC Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 7:31:07 PM   What I found interesting to learn in my copy & paste was that Putin scored a big browning point with the Russian people by taking (the jewel of the USSR) Crimea. It seems that is what is keeping Putin's popularity up but such novelties tend to wear off after a period of time. RodanTsunami Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 7:45:35 PM   Pirates are happiest when drunk, drunk with power. When they wake after their pillage, their flag is still the skull and cross bones and no port is home. Men without a country and despised by their own confederates. kaiserdag Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 9:54:05 PM   What if one of the World Cup events get to be move to Krym? to ramp up the Economy.... What Would FIFA Do? MartinPC Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/18/2015 11:13:36 PM   Crimea isn't in Russia! That like suggesting a sporting event in Turkey gets moved to northern Cyprus ... It would be a non event, northern Cyprus, like Crimea, is illegally occupied and it is not part of Turkey. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/19/2015 6:04:22 AM   RUSSIA INVENTS TIME MACHINE! "Bank Rossii" (The Bank of Russia) today declared that the credit ratings of Russian banks shall be: The ratings they held on 1 March 2014 (the day Russia's legislature gave Putin, at his request, the "authority" to use Russian troops in Crimea)! THAT will take care of those pesky credit downgrades by world-recognized rating organizations. Well played, boys. You can't make this stuff up. Rick4girl Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/19/2015 9:07:55 AM   They are going to create their own credit rating agency with China. They are also considering closing down and expelling foreign workers from the big Capitalist pig rating agencies because they are conspiring to spread lies about Russia's financial situation(Fitch Moodys and S&P) It also appears that Ukraine has lost Donetsk airport to the terrorists kaiserdag Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/19/2015 10:24:12 AM   No doubt that Russians have invented the time machine.... But , they are going way back 1998, 1990 1990 and 1936 remember the Nazi Germany's Olympics and after that event! KABOOM!!! durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/26/2015 3:24:10 PM   STANDARD & POOR'S PULLS THE TRIGGER S&P today downgraded the creditworthiness of the Russian Federation's sovereign debt to BB+. This is junk-bond status. Russia's debt is no longer rated as investment grade. As I mentioned previously, if one of the other two rating companies (Fitch or Moody's) follows suit (they both have Russia just one notch above junk), this will trigger automatic no-buy and sell-off rules in many funds, with important implications for the entire Russian economy. The ruble, which has been close to 65/USD for the past two weeks, has decayed almost to 70/USD (68.98 at last reading). Although the steep decline of the ruble is attributed to the downgrade, my guess is that part -- maybe even most -- of the ruble's slide today results from the murderous attack against Mariupol. The credit downgrade was expected by the financial markets, but Putin's violent escalation of the war was not. Obviously, there is a serious risk of more sanctions now. The US and EU are talking about them at the momemtn threading_signals Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/27/2015 2:08:21 PM   durak, didn't you write about your financial situation before? Isn't part of the appeal of international dating about being a sugardaddy without even realizing it? So how else do we men act? What do we really choose, beauty or the bond itself? If it is about the bond, then, as an indication, how do we prove worthy as a man during courtship here? If not here, then why there? This thread isn't much new news. Much of it for people in the banking or other sectors. Sure, some of the women may become more desperate due to economic direction but the threads about building contacts there and learning a language is more relevant and useful. Does desperation help out for the long-term? Time and again, we hear that the men are spoiled over there. Over here, we spoil ourselves with the number of available women over there. They know how to be romantic, but less so for men here, since we don't know their culture. Romance is not about love and it often takes a man's resourcefulness to show passionate feelings. U.S. economic and foreign policy is not without faults, as shown by sterilization programs in South American countries, gay propaganda, off-shoring jobs overseas and suppressing wages overseas, etc. You might have completely sold yourself out for a FSU woman, and if that is so, then your viewpoint is compromised. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/27/2015 3:07:28 PM   @signals, I don't recall having written about my personal finances. I usually write comments either (a) in direct reply to something another person wrote, or (b) because I expect it will be useful or interesting to at least a few of the readers on this forum. In my mind, Russia's economic condition is important mainly because it: (a) exposes Russia's severe and intense systemic corruption (b) may influence the course of the horrible war against Ukraine (c) is likely to shape how Russia changes in the coming years Also, the severity of Russia's present economic decline is one of the important international developments of recent times. Its evolution is "new news", and I think worthy of attention. I'm sure it is interesting to some of the participants in this forum. Ukraine's economic collapse is also big news, but I don't write much about it here because I don't think it will much change how the war develops, and because I expect that if Ukraine can escape from Russia's cruel grasp, the Ukrainian economy will do alright in the end. I don't have any reason to believe that Russia's economic developments have changed the international dating picture. What happens in these relationships (both genuine and fraudulent) has much more to do with the individuals involved, their cultures and life histories. If short-term events make any real impact, I haven't seen it. What COULD make a big difference, would be a change in migration regimes. For example, if Ukrainians could freely travel in the European Union, I suspect that would change the international dating picture in Ukraine a lot. [In any case, I don't think this will happen any time soon.] ________________ For what it's worth, if you are interested in where I am coming from: 1. I was interested in the "Russian zone", and began traveling there, long before I became interested in this international dating business. I have been really curious to understand conditions in Russia, how it came to its present situation, and the direction in which it appears to be moving. For me, the former Soviet Union isn't just a weird place where I search for women. 2. I don't hold with "four legs good, two legs bad". The West in general, and my country in particular (USA) has a long list of sins, some of them very terrible. In recent years, the US has severely damaged the framework of international law, in ways that I believe encouraged Putin in his piracy. But two (or two million) wrongs don't make a right. 3. I wasted a few hundred dollars on one "shopping girl" some years ago. I've never had a financial loss related to dating (if you don't count my marriage to an American woman!) that was of any importance. It's embarrassing, but I've lost more money by arriving too late at the airport and missing flights, and to Russian pick-pockets, than I ever did by dating. My bias is that I love Russia and Ukraine. These countries are filled with people possessing many great strengths and virtues. It pains me deeply to see their suffering under horrible governments. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/27/2015 5:53:31 PM   MANY SMALL RUSSIAN BANKS ARE VULNERABLE An analysis by Russia's Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (website in Russian: www.forecast.ru) predicts that without financial aid from the Russian government, 200 Russian banks will fail in 2015, and 160 more in 2016. It puts the cost of keeping these banks afloat at 1,400 billion rubles (more than USD 20 billion at today's exchange rate). I don't understand the causes of the stress, but I gather that the present high core interest rate (now at 17%) increases bank costs. If I understood the reportage correctly, the Center foresees the possibility of even higher interest rates in Russia. Pythagoras Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/28/2015 3:11:08 PM   "I don't understand the causes of the stress, but I gather that the present high core interest rate (now at 17%) increases bank costs. If I understood the reportage correctly, the Center foresees the possibility of even higher interest rates in Russia." People are dumping the rubles and with the oil converting less from dollar to rubles , there is a run for the bank coming up shortly. The spike in interest is a trial to keep deposit in rubles, keep confidence but I'm not sure it will work. On top of it , a key problem is the fact that Russian companies have debt in US$. They can't rollover them because of the sanctions so a lot of default are on the way. Russian people believe they can weather the storm while Putin advance in Ukraine. I guess we will find out over the next year as the saudi's announced that they will keep thr price of oil lower then it is now until at least mid 2016. ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/28/2015 3:50:01 PM   "I don't understand the causes of the stress, but I gather that the present high core interest rate (now at 17%) increases bank costs. If I understood the reportage correctly, the Center foresees the possibility of even higher interest rates in Russia." A good part of banks cash flow is loan payments. When banks lend out their money, they take into account their profit and the rate of inflation. Many of these loans were made before the crisis. They did not anticipate the high inflation. What they are getting paid back in rubles is much less in what was anticipated. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/30/2015 7:11:55 AM   RUBLE AGAIN BREAKS 70 / USD This is the worst the ruble has been since the collapse in December. The situation might be worse than December; that was a brief spike, but this weakness may be more sustained. The Russian government "stemmed the bleeding" in December by a steep interest rate hike and a half-assed version of capital controls. Those measures doomed Russia to at least one year of GDP contraction. Moscow can try tightening the screws again, but I don't expect it ... the cost of strangling the economy will probably look worse than the cost of letting the currency degrade. The fall of the ruble is really painful to ordinary Russians, and also the big business oligarchs, but have no direct harm to Putin. If I'm mistaken, and Russia does hike interest rates again, the fireworks should be fun to watch. The core rate is already 17% ... remember, that is the FLOOR rate (like the prime rate in the US). If Russia increases the rate again, businesses needing to borrow to finance their operations will be paying loan-shark rates like Americans often see on credit cards. MartinPC Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 1/30/2015 7:20:54 AM   I recall when I bought my house, upgrading from a flat/apartment, circa 1988 the UK interest rate on my mortgage was something like 15%, life wasn't easy, after paying the mortgage and the beer each month there wasn't much left. We tend to borrow what we can afford based on the interest rate at the time, I can foresee a lot of home and business repossessions in Russia. Your Reply: Your name:   New Registration Password:   Forgot password?   refresh Code:   Russian brides > Main Forum > Economic Consequences of the War
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