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	Create New Topic   My Posts   My forum buddies   Invite friends   Private messages Russian brides > Main Forum > Opinions: How the West Should Respond Author Post lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/2/2014 7:08:30 PM   Oh well,,, what can you do?? Pull an Obama??? durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/3/2014 4:17:43 PM   An outrage like Russia just pulled evokes a lot of emotional reaction, much of it adrenaline-fueled. It's natural to "see red" and to fantasize all sorts of punitive and damaging reactions. In most cases, such knee-jerk responses would do more harm than good. That's one reason why most countries usually put seasoned professionals in charge of their military and diplomatic operations: so cool heads can think things through. In my opinion, the first response should usually be to do nothing at all. Especially in today's situation, where (to my knowledge) not one drop of blood has yet been spilled by Russia's invasion. As the hours and days pass, powerful and wealthy countries the world over condemn Russia's actions. The ruble has broken records by its plummeting value. Investors are making massive retreat from Russian investments, and Russia MUST HAVE foreign investment for its economic health: comparatively, Russia is a poor country, and like other banana republics, depends heavily on resource extraction (NOT value added) for its foreign exchange. The rest of the G8 countries -- pointedly calling themselves the G7! -- have unanimously condemned Russia's actions. None of this will FORCE Putin to take, or avoid, particular course of action. The use of force has limited value -- it can change a situation, but rarely resolves it. International crises get resolved over periods of years, as people understand what is in their best interest, and act accordingly. So now, Putin (in silence, at least publicly) must contemplate the changed landscape he has created, and think about how much he is willing to pay, versus how much value. Remember, Russia just blew $50 billion to host the winter Olympics on an absurd site -- THE ONLY REGION IN RUSSIA THAT DOESN'T HAVE SNOW IN WINTER -- just to say to the world, "see, we're a nice comfortable modern country, not a weird scary place full of gangsters." And now, by one thuggish act, Putin has destroyed any benefit to Russia's image in the world the Olympics might have brought. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/3/2014 4:31:36 PM   Physicist Niels Bohr said, "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Poet Alexander Pope wrote, "Fools rush in where angels fear to tread." Accordingly, here are durak's fearlessly foolish early predictions: (1) Having seen the reactions, and reckoned the costs, Putin will probably stop at Crimea, and not send Russia's military to any other part of Ukraine. (2) Russia's incursion will probably not be completely reversed, at least anytime soon. Even if Russia backs away from its military occupation, Crimea may remain even farther from Kyiv's control than it already was as an autonomous republic. (3) Russia will continue to interfere in Ukraine for many years to came, but mainly by propagandistic and economic means. (4) Putin will stay in power for some years to come, but while his "brand" will continue (both internationally and in Russia), he has just made cracks in it that will never be completely repaired. When my prediction are proved wrong by events, feel free to condemn my ignorance and short-sightedness. ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/3/2014 5:01:13 PM   Will the visa free feature of Ukraine be affected? What is your prediction on that, durak? lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/3/2014 5:21:59 PM   "When my prediction are proved wrong by events, feel free to condemn my ignorance and short-sightedness." Only if you voted for Obama! ozjohn Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/3/2014 5:51:13 PM   Your Right Durak with your prediction. America will not spill one bit of American blood for this country. it not worth the trouble and cost to the USA. specially when the crimea is already 60% converted now. putin will go down in history as a great leader to the Russian Empire for rebuilding it from it former pass the USSR. Obama will down as president who was a lame duck to the US and to the world. interesting think what President Reagan would have done in this situation with Crimea and Putin?? A great president to the USA. I think in the future the Ukraine will be split east and west as Russia will keep going after the last piece of the cake which is pro Russian Ukraine east. stevc Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/3/2014 8:09:47 PM   Russia like it or not has serious interst in Crimea read history. Even though Crimea was given to Ukraine when Ukraine was the gem of CCCP. It has always flown Russian flag. Do not forget its importance as a major port to Russia. Let Commonwealth and Europe handle change. And lets see the change go peacefully as possible. A lot of. Work has transpired in last 50 years to bring the world to point it is today. Lets not screw it up. Just my opinion ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/4/2014 12:26:40 AM   In a stunning act to show he means business, Obama draws his line on the sand and unfriends Putin on Facebook. WTFisgoingon Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/4/2014 9:02:19 AM   ragingbull, at least you get visa free entry to Ukraine. If the east of Ukraine splits to become separate then I'm guessing they will require visas. If the they split I hope the west of Ukraine allows Australians to have visa free entry (my selfish thoughts). Of coarse, my true hope is that the west and east, including Crimea stay as part of Ukraine as before and I can move around freely. It does seem strange that Russia gave Ukraine its only warm water deep seas port 60 years ago. Would have seemed better to just keep it. WIFESEEKER Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/4/2014 7:31:45 PM   How we (the UK) MAY HAVE to respond: Because of our recognising the soveregnity of Ukraine, and agreeing to guarantee its independence, we could be in a similar situation as with Poland in WW2: You attack Poland, we attack you. You attack Ukraine, we attack you....and Germany was a formidable enemy like Russia would be today. lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/5/2014 12:35:10 AM   poppy Member send PM send PM block PM send PM add to buddies Send: 3/1/2014 7:26:39 PM "kick Russia out of un lonely tell that to the thousands in crimea begging for help . America has caused enough trouble hope they keep there nose out of it and Russia smashes ukraine and restors order to the country " http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/03/04/watch-hundreds-of-ukrainian s-defy-putin-in-one-of-the-simplest-ways-possible-song/?utm_source=facebook&utm_ medium=story&utm_campaign=ShareButtons Watch Hundreds of Ukrainians Defy Putin in One of the Simplest Ways Possible: Song In an area commonly known for its ties to Russia, hundreds of eastern Ukrainians stood up to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, not with weapons but with song. Together in an open field, the residents of Dnipropetrovsk sang the Ukrainian national anthem in an act of defiance against Russia’s military action and demanded Moscow remove its troops from their homeland. Video of the rally, sent to TheBlaze by Myroslav Marynovych — the vice rector of the Ukrainian Catholic University and founder of Amnesty International Ukraine — suggests not all eastern Ukrainians are siding with Russia, despite Putin terming the crisis in the country an “unconstitutional coup” and claiming his troops are in Crimea at the request of eastern Ukrainians in need of protection. poppy Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/5/2014 9:25:45 AM   twinkle twinkle star ? lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/6/2014 12:11:23 PM   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sarwar-kashmeri/ukraine-2014-is-grenada-1983_b_489 7596.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592 lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/7/2014 7:08:23 PM   This is a must read! I only pasted a tiny piece of it. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB100014240527023038242045 79422971651210180?KEYWORDS=Russia&mg=reno64-wsj “Garry Kasparov: Cut Off the Russian Oligarchs and They'll Dump Putin Target their assets abroad, their mansions and IPOs in London, their yachts. Use banks, not tanks.” “For those who ask what the consequences will be of inaction by the free world over Ukraine, I say you are looking at it. This is the price for inaction in Georgia, for inaction in Syria. It means the same thing happening again and again until finally it cannot be ignored. The price of inaction against a dictator's aggression is always having a next time. And in this market, the longer you wait, the higher that price gets.” durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/7/2014 7:46:16 PM   @lonely: I certainly agree with Kasparov. A few days ago I saw a TV news discussion including two "Russia watchers," one of whom recently published a book detailing how Russia's rich rob their country. Many many billions are constantly leaving Russia -- the oligarchs don't want to risk keeping all their wealth in their decaying, corrupt and lawless homeland. He said that under a regime of strict economic sanctions, Putin would be gone within 18 months. The other expert commented that it would happen a lot quicker than that. However, the analyst of Russian thievery also said that Putin no longer fears such sanctions (he used to, 10 years ago) because Russia's theft-train is enormously profitable to several European countries (especially the UK banking industry). Putin has concluded that the Europeans are as venal and corrupt as he is, and for that reason such sanctions will never take place. The analyst agrees with Putin on this. On the other side, even limited sanctions can be quite painful for Russia, and if they "fight back" against sanctions with counter-sanctions of their own, that would make additional costs in both the short and long term. For example, Russia is already threatening to seize assets of corporations from countries that make sanctions against them: but it Russia did so, that would be an enormous discouragement to foreign firms making investments in Russia. And Russia's economy (so I am told) desperately needs foreign investment. So Russia is surely including the cost of sanctions into their calculations about how to move forward. Sanctions are not unlike military weapons -- they are crude blunt instruments, which work best when they sit unused as a deterrent. kaiserdag Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/7/2014 9:00:47 PM   For now, the West in is helping to stabilize Ukraine's economic ...and on the other hand, all parties involved in this conflict will like to avoid WW3! Regardless of NATO movements and Russian pouring into krym. My concern is for how long will Putin will denied that those are not Russian troops and the West do nothin about that. lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/7/2014 9:41:06 PM   Here’s another twist to the story. I’ve been in contact with someone who is actively involved with the maidan protests,,, and never have I heard one word of regret over what is taking place. No one is saying or even suggesting that they bite off more than they can chew. All of the protesters are looking for the US and Europe to solve their problems. http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2014/0307/Ru ssia-and-the-West-are-both-being-played-by-Ukraine-s-political-elites “ Russia and the West are both being played by Ukraine's political elites” “Ukraine is teetering on the brink of disaster, once again drawing the West and Russia into diplomatic conflict. But as pundits and policymakers debate the appropriate Western response to the showdown in Crimea – and raise the specter of a renewed cold war – they would do well to recognize the responsibility of the Ukrainian elite for the present East-West showdown.” “Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukrainian politicians have played the West and Moscow against each other to extort maximal support from both sides. Consequently, a stable Ukraine is unlikely to emerge from the recent protests unless domestic political development takes precedence over geopolitical brinkmanship. Indeed, it would be a serious mistake to allow saber rattling to drown out the message of Ukraine’s EuroMaidan protesters whose public demonstrations sparked a revolution and set off the current turmoil between the West and Moscow. Ukrainian politicians have repeatedly attempted to fob off their own failures onto Moscow and the West. The trade union skirmish that ignited the EuroMaidan protests was simply the latest example. Because neither Moscow nor the West could afford to “lose Ukraine,” Ukrainian elites have played each side against the other while extracting rents from both since the early 1990s. Unfortunately, virtually none of the goodies made their way to the people or the state. The pockets of the elite are well lined – as ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s Mezhyhirya estate extravagantly demonstrated – but Ukraine’s economy is on the brink of default.” lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/17/2014 8:27:50 PM   http://freepatriot.org/2014/03/17/watch-former-obama-supporter-burns-2008-campai gn-shirt-telling-criminal-chief/ Watch: Former Obama Supporter Burns Her 2008 Campaign Shirt While Telling Off “The Criminal-In-Chief” Tom Shea Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/17/2014 10:38:33 PM   If obama had not ignored the 18 LNG loading docks on the east coast....planned and ready to be built until he stopped them...we could insure Europe all their gas needs, make money, jobs, and really squeeze Russia. Unfortunately with the dems and Obama, we can't do crap. ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 3/18/2014 7:02:37 PM   Democrat Senator Chris Murphy (Conn), claims that Putin has begun to panic due to the Obama administration's strength and we really shouldn't be surprised. Your Reply: Your name:   New Registration Password:   Forgot password?   refresh Code:   Russian brides > Main Forum > Opinions: How the West Should Respond
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