I don't mean to suggest that mass murderers can't destroy an airliner -- only that it would now be so difficult to use one to damage a chosen target, that I don't think that anyone will attempt it. The tactic used in the 2001 attacks depended very heavily on surprise.
Consider this over-simplified analysis: before the world understood the reality of using airliners to target buildings, 3 out of 3 such attacks succeeded in striking their targets (100% success rate). Less than an hour later, when this element of surprise was lost, the same tactic failed: those aboard the aircraft knew what was up, and it appears that their actions defeated the attacker's intentions. So the attack conducted after the element of surprise was lost failed in its mission (0% success rate).
Probably a day will come when passengers and crew no longer feel motivated to resist hijackers, but until that day comes, repeating the 2001 attacks will have a low probability of success.
Since you seem to be an aviation guy, you have probably thought about things the pilots could do in an emergency now that "cooperate with the hijackers" is out the window. Pushing the control column forward to -1G is one way to buy a few seconds of time while defending the cockpit. In a violent scenario, saving the plane may be tough, but there are several options to frustrate its use as a weapon. Probably many thousands of airline pilots have given a lot of thought to this problem. The 9/11 attackers seem to have calculated (correctly) that they could execute their plan without interference. Would they make the same calculation today?
Before 9/11 would you have believed 9/11 to be possible?
Your answer is probably "no", well 9/11 proved to everybody, including every terrorist in the world, both present and future, that it is possible.
Whenever the first aircraft, ever, may have been hijacked did the authorities say "OK, been there, done that, it shall never happen again, we'll be ready for them next time"?
Aircraft have been hijacked ever since once it was proved to be possible, if you're saying that something similar to 9/11 won't happen again then I hope you're right but somehow I doubt it!
0% success rate? Durak I hope you're never on such a flight where the success rate was 0% and 89 innocent people on that flight lost their lives.
The analysis is over simplified but the issue is. Well we can do that, what other security breach is there to compromise. In my life I never thought I would see a tactical nuclear weapon used. Sadly I know it will happen. It's just where and when now. The reason, we have let political correctness stand in the way visionaries have warned us about before and we now want to deny the possibility.
Also your analysis is flawed because some brave souls decided not to let the attack finish. many on the flight from Pittburgh were terrified, what a way to spend the last moments of your life. It was a handful of guys who wouldn't tolerate the shit and took it into their own hands. It cost them their lives, but they lived the last few moments as free men not terrified victims. We dishonor those few men with political correctness. They weren't soldiers in this conflict but everyday citizens who want nothing more than to live in peace.
Oh you are the one who likes to quote Jefferson's supposed separation clause, Does Islam have that? Look at the Islamic nations now, they are governed by Mullahs, Ayatollahs, etc, there is no separation of Church and state in the Islamic world.
dcv with your very accurate analysis there have a deep understanding of this issue.Is is any wonder white indigenous christians of Britain are leaving Rowan Williams form of "christian" worship when Rowan Williams comes out with total crap like this ......."Sharia law in UK is unavoidable".
This clown is supposed to represent christians in Britain. Rowan Williams Disciple of Satan.
Since 9/11 there have been over 14505 deadly attacks from Islamic Terrorists.
I also see they won't let Michael Savage into the UK and he has one of the more popular talk shows behind Rush and Sean Hannity.
Support Michael Savage and Geert Wilders, what happened to freedom of speech?
Freedom of speech is in the US constitution, but no such guarantee exists within Britain. Recently, the UK Home Office publicly released the list of the 16 'banned' people, which included Savage. Although his views on Islam are quoted as part of the reason for his exclusion, this is apparently alongside his views on rape and autism.
The statement from the H/O is that the people on the list are 'not in the public interest'. Others on the list:
Fred Walrdron Phelps & Shirley Phelps-Roper: Both of which have picketed the funerals of AIDS victims, and celebrated US soldier deaths as a punishment for US tolerance of homosexuality
Yunis Al-Astal: Hamas Member Of Parliament
Stephen Black & Erich Gliebe: KKK leaders
(Just so you know the kind of company Savage and Wilders are keeping)
The 'Presumption Of Exclusion' rule applies, where if a credible accusation of the potential to stir up racial hatred, terrorist violence or serious criminal behaviour, they are unable to prove otherwise. In the cases of those on the banned list, they were given a chance to provide proof, and they failed.
So, your turn. Why was Yusuf Islam barred from the US?
NEWS REPORT from British newspaper........ "thousands of Muslims have moved to the UK because it is more sympathetic towards Islam than other European countries"
Muzzy seems to me you don't know about Dr. Savage and his research into Autism? Savage has proved there is nothing regarding racial hatred in his speech. I don't think you know much about Michael Savage at all.
Some quotes below.
While Islam is projected today as inimical and hostile to Christianity, Judaism and other Religions, the truth is that the Prophet was the great educator, teaching people the meaning and explanation of their own Religion, correcting and assisting them in following the right path, as taught by previous Prophets and messengers.”
“The greatest legacy is that which benefits the widest number of people for the longest period without limit to value. No one but the Prophet Muhammad was given that role as the seal of God's message.”
“I always stood for the elimination of conflict and wars, and any of those causes that ignite them.”
“Salman Rushdie, indeed any writer who abuses the prophet or indeed any prophet under Islamic law, the sentence for that is actually death.”
“At Jerusalem, I went to the mosque and sat down. A man asked me what I wanted. I told him I was a Muslim. Now I realize I can get direct contact with God, unlike Christianity or any other religion.”
Now if this was done by an American, it would be considered hate speech. If Savage had actually participated in hate speech, the US Government would have shut him down. The rules of free speech has it's limitations.
Cat Stevens was a freak in his youth and was always searching for something. Royalties from his music has gone to terrorist activities. Hence the ban. It has nothing to do with speech.
It is worth noting that UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw,is a frequent guest and supporter of the Muslim Council of Britain has helped them to falsely pass themselves off as moderates. He was the one trying to help Stevens sue the US Government against a moderate such as Colin Powell.
The domain registrant for Islam's Muslim Aid "charity" is Iqbal Asaria, a documented Al Qaeda operative who is the chairman of the Muslim Council of Britain's finance and economics committee.
Islam claims he left Muslim Aid in 1999 "after it fell into the hands of extremists". Which begs the question:
Why did Yusuf Islam not shut down Muslim Aid instead of leaving it in the hands of extremists? This being the case one must conclude that the "extremists" are none other then Iqbal Sacranie and other members of the Muslim Council of Britain who continue to run Muslim Aid . Yusuf Islam left Muslim Aid to form Small Kindness the 'charity' for Bosnian Muslims which appears to be an extension of Muslim Aid under a different name .
Nothing to do with speech Muzzy, it had to do with actions.
Credible agains Savage and Wilders? Tells me the UK is going to hell in a handbasket.
I'm a student of security, and I try to be as realistic in my thinking as I can.
In 2004, I updated my life insurance before making my first trip to Russia, my thought being, "sooner or later the Chechens are going to blow up a Russian airliner." Less than 3 months after I returned safely home, they managed to blow up two of them within about 15 minutes of each other. I can sometimes "read the tea leaves."
Yes, bad guys have some chance of crashing an airliner, though this is harder than it used to be. But if their intention is to control the flight path, in order to hit a planned target in the USA, they must now consider:
1) the cockpit crew is likely to resist to their utmost (until 2001, crews were taught to cooperate with hijackers, the concept being that hijackers might be dealt with by ground security forces when the plane landed)
2) the cabin crew and passengers are likely to resist with great force, understanding that failure to act can be their own death sentence
3) air defenses may be more prepared to intercept and if necessary shoot down an airliner that appears to be a threat
4) on US airliners, an increased presence of air marshals, and the possibility that a pilot may have air marshal training and a firearm
5) the possibility that cockpit crews under attack might change the aircraft configuration (for example, shutting down engines) in a way that would make it more difficult for 9/11 style hijackers to take control
6) improved door discipline and strength
This does NOT show that a 9/11 style attack can't be repeated. But in my humble opinion, an attacker considering these factors will likely conclude that such an attack is not likely to reach its target, and they will prefer to try something else.
To reframe martin's question, if someone had asked before 9/11, can hijackers who know how to work yoke and throttles take control of an airliner cockpit and steer the plane, I think the answer would have been (among people who know commercial aviation) that yes, this is feasible. My answer today, is that it will be a lot harder to pull this off than it used to be.
Sadly, probably every big city in the world has undefended trains rolling through it each day whose tank cars contain stuff that can easily kill thousands simply by venting out. People use terrorism because they are weak, and terrorists seek the soft, undefended places. That is why suicide bombers in Israel board buses, rather than trying to get into military bases. And that is why focusing on a specific tactic is foolish way to allocate security resources.
In the battleship era, battlewagons had enormously strong (and heavy) armor belts around their waterlines. So naval tactics called (when possible) for attack from above, where the ships were nearly defenseless. Likewise, many modern anti-tank munitions are designed to fly over the tank and shoot downward, where the armor is weakest.
I don't know the statistics but I believe more people walk away, alive, from hijacks than those that don't. Whether it be crew or pax, by 'going for' an armed hijacket one is almost certainly signing their own death certificate when, indeed, if they behave themselves they might be seeing their families again in a few hours from then.
Too much attention is being paid to a 'one off' of 9/11, those pax, via mobile phones, knew what was happening in NYC, they knew that they were going to die, for sure, thus a few of them acted as if they were prisoners already on death row.
I have known 2 Captains of 2 hijacked aircraft, one named Stratton, the Captain of a BOAC VC10, the hijackers were to blow the aircraft up with everybody on board, he negotiated and all were allowed off before the aircraft was blown up. The other Captain was named Clark, of a Kuwait Airways A300, that aircraft, I recall, flew from one airport to another airport to another etc. Both these Captains lived to tell the tale by not confronting the hijackers.
Can you imagine how much of a decision it would be for any government to order the shooting down of a civilian airliner, hundreds of innocent civilians, unless that government is a 100% sure and can you imagine the aftermath, let us say, if USA military shot down a Russian Aeroflot inbound to NYC and it were to transpire that the aircrraft had not been hijacked, it had merely had radio and transponder failures or the crew had been asleep, which does sometimes happen?
Please try to stop talking USA, USA, USA. We are talking about the world here, not just USA, however there are one hell of a lot of non USA registered aircraft, without sky marshals, flying in US airspace.
Shutting down the engines, almost certain death! Hijackers can be incredibly thick, I recall the Ethiopian Airlines B767, modern aircraft instrument panels do not have fuel gauges like in the old days, it's all electronic displays, the crew kept warning, and warning, the hijackers that there was insufficient fuel on board ..... right up until the tanks ran dry and the hijackers wouldn't believe the crew!
america reacts, then it is old news, I do not wish to get involved on this.... too late... but it is an odds game, the american "think tank" or otherwise known as the knee jerks, have not a clue of the real world for the most part... only a select few individuals know what is going on... the rest are just proffessional politicians who care about only one thing -- gettineg re-elected... and what has happened in the past or will in the future has no relevance to most -- it is a play and they are performers, hoping to get applause and accolades thrown their way, and when they leave the stage they only want to enjoy the income and perks they recieve,,, much like any actor in a movie role...
evil will continue until the last two people are left on the earth... the question is how to survive, avoid and have peace of mind while hoping nothing bad ever happens to you and the ones you love...
As I expected the terrible tragedy of Haiti is descending into violence lynchings Anarchy among the ruins.
Just like it did with the hurricane in New orleans in 2005-the blacks are looking to pin the blame on white people again.
This time the Black population can Not blame White people for the disaster of nature.The government of Haiti is black!!!!!!!.
I wonder if Sean Penn will go out in his little boat again as he did in 2005 (and SINK) to try and ingratiate himself with the black Haiti population.
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