According to a United Nations report, the conflict in Ukraine has killed about 800 civilians, and wounded more than 2,100. (I don't know, whether the 800 dead not include almost 300 aboard the Malaysian airliner). Nearly 80,000 are believed to have relocated in Ukraine in order to avoid combat zones (personally, I suspect that number may be much higher).
Although each side consistently blames the other for civilian casualties, it is very likely that a large proportion of this agony to non-combatants is caused by forces of the Ukrainian government. Their weapons and tactics lack the selectiveness and precision needed to minimize casualties in populated areas.
The legacy of hatred toward the Kyiv government is likely to burden Ukraine for a long time to come.
With so much attention to the shooting down of flight MH17, government advances against the Donbass separatists have not received the prominence in news coverage they have otherwise.
In fact, Ukraine's military has been making consistent advances, and the rebels are on the retreat. I saw a map yesterday (I don't know how accurate) that showed the zone of rebel control as no longer including all of the city centers of Donetsk and Luhansk. The total size of rebel-controlled territory is probably less than half what is two weeks ago, and a much smaller fraction of what they controlled a month ago.
Ukraine's military must contend with a steady flow of reinforcements, weapons, and now artillery fire from Russian territory (mainly to the east of Luhansk). At present, government forces are working on the encirclement of Donetsk, which would cut the "Donetsk People's Republic" off from its Russian masters.
Aleksandr Borodai -- Russian citizen, PR consultant, and "Prime Minister" of the "Donetsk People's Republic" -- has flown to Moscow "for consultations" and will return to Donetsk "in a few days."
Any bets on the return to Donetsk of this heroic freedom fighter?
Since the crisis began, the USA has been pushing for more and stronger economic sanctions, with Europe resisting -- for the natural reason that strong sanctions will cost Europe's own economy.
The combination of Russia's escalating warfare against its neighbor, and anguish felt in Europe when most of the dead on MH17 were European citizens (a direct result of Russia's escalating warfare) seems to have shifted Europe's attitude.
The EU is now undertaking sanctions against Russia that affect whole sectors of Russia's economy. All previous EU sanctions were very limited in scope, mainly against small lists of individuals.
This is a big deal. In Germany, with strong economic ties to Russia, the pushback against sanctions has been strong. But now an industry lobbying group has changed its posture:
"the MH17 Malaysian airlines crash in eastern Ukraine, however, has prompted the Federation of German Industry (BDI) lobby to revise its position. Yesterday it admitted that sanctions 'cannot and must not be ruled out as a means of applying pressure on the Russian government'. BDI chief Ulrich Grillo said sanctions could would come at a 'painful' cost to European business, and to German exporters, but that the game had changed with Russia.
'The BDI and I personally have become convinced that the behaviour of the Russian government in the Ukrainian conflict of secession must have noticeable consequences for Moscow,' wrote Mr Grillo in the Handelsblatt business daily."
And from Germany's cabinet:
"Finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble reiterated that position at the weekend, saying economic interests are secondary to the main priority of securing stability and peace in Ukraine. 'If the German finance or economics minister said, ‘careful, sanctions damage our economic interests’ then the chancellor has the wrong minister,' he said. 'A disturbance to peace and stability would ... be the greatest danger for economic development.'"
He's absolutely right, of course: the cost of allowing Russia to get away with piracy, terrorism and murder will be many times greater, than the cost of sanctions. We have a saying: "you can pay me now, or you can pay me later."
Ukraine conflict: US and EU widen sanctions on Russia
US President Barack Obama has announced new economic sanctions against Russia, saying they will make Russia's "weak economy even weaker".
He said the co-ordinated actions of the US and European Union would "have an even bigger bite" on Russia's economy.
The new restrictions include banning Americans or people in the US from banking with three Russian banks.
The aim is to increase the cost to Russia of its continued support for pro-Moscow rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow denies charges by the EU and US that it is supplying heavy weapons to the rebels.
Speaking at the White House, Mr Obama said the US was widening its sanctions to target the key sectors of the Russian economy - energy, arms and finance.
"If Russia continues on this current path, the costs on Russia will continue to grow," Mr Obama said.
The US Treasury said the banks being targeting in this round of sanctions were VTB, the Bank of Moscow, and the Russian Agriculture Bank (Rosselkhozbank).
Earlier, the EU also adopted new economic sanctions against Russia, targeting the oil sector, defence equipment and sensitive technologies.
After shaky start, Ukraine turns eastern offensive around
Major questions exist over the extent of Russian support for the separatists and what the Kremlin will do if its alleged proxies seriously look like they are losing.
As they retreated from key towns rebel commanders have increasingly lashed out at Moscow for not sending enough support and some analysts said Russian President Vladimir Putin might be looking for a way out in the wake of tougher international sanctions and the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.
But far from backing down, the US says Moscow is now "doubling down" on its support for the rebels, ramping up the flow of weapons and firing directly at Ukrainian troops from its territory.
Legacy similar to Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, Khadafy, Napoleon, Hussein, Kean, Pilot,,,,,, as if on a head stone, the name Putin is already chiseled,,,,, He won't be missed after the few moments of glory except, in the eyes of the blind. Though nameless to most, grieved by loved ones, the righteous and honored ones that fell on the Steppes and at the Maidan where it began , "They" will be remembered as one. This incursion will not stand.
IF YOU STILL BELIEVE THAT DONBASS SEPARATIST VIOLENCE IS A POPULAR UPRISING, WAKE UP!
From Lucian Kim, a correspondent writing in Slate:
"On a visit to Donetsk last week, I was struck by the change in mood compared with previous months. The city of 1 million has become a ghost town as the Ukrainian military closes in on the rebel stronghold. While locals used to openly express support for the separatists, I heard no praise for the rebels this time. One older woman whose neighborhood had been shelled told me she was disappointed that Petro Poroshenko, elected Ukraine’s president in May, reneged on his promise to make his first trip to Donetsk. A shopkeeper confided in me that she and all her acquaintances were impatiently awaiting the Ukrainian Army. A taxi driver railed that the anarchy was a bonanza for criminal gangs."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-ready-battle-ukraine-102041902.html
Russia has significantly built up its troop presence along the Ukrainian border, making it ready for a potential large-scale invasion of southeastern Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin so chooses.
The New York Times' Michael Gordon and Eric Schmitt report, citing Western officials, that Russia has nearly doubled its battalions along the Ukrainian border in recent weeks. Seventeen more battalions and an additional 19,000 to 21,000 troops now compose a " battle-ready force of infantry, armor, artillery, and air defense within a few miles of the border." They could theretically strike with "little to no warning."
Western officials also told The Times that Russia has upped its number of surface-to-air units to 14 from eight, and it has deployed more than 30 artilleries.
Western intelligence officials told the paper it was unclear what Putin was planning, but it is clear they are worried about what would be, for all intents and purposes, an invasion under the guise of a "peacekeeping" operation.
"That’s a very real option," a senior Defense Department official told The Times. "And should Putin decide, he could do that with little or no notice. We just don’t know what he’s thinking."
The moves come as Ukrainian forces find themselves in increasingly good position on the battlefield against pro-Russian separatists, whom the West has accused Russia of supporting throughout the Ukrainian crisis. Western officials said Putin may be feeling pressure to intervene to tip the balance toward the separatists, but he could be worried about the uncertain repercussions that would come from such a radical escalation.
A "peacekeeping" operation is also something about which the White House has worried in recent weeks.
"Ukrainian forces are right now making major gains to regain sovereignty in the east, but at the same time, Russia is doubling down on its own efforts to support the separatists and destabilize the country," deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken said last week. "Indeed, it is cynically using all of the attention focused on the crash of MH17 as a cover and distraction for its own efforts. It’s increased the provision of heavy weaponry across the border. We’ve seen convoys of tanks, multiple rocket launchers, artillery, and armored vehicles. There’s evidence it’s preparing to deliver even more powerful multiple rocket launchers.
"It is firing from positions inside of Russia into Ukraine — something that we documented this weekend. And we’ve seen a significant re-buildup of Russian forces along the border, potentially positioning Russia for a so-called humanitarian or peacekeeping intervention in Ukraine."
The U.S. and European Union last week leveled a new, more punishing round of sanctions on Russia in the wake of Russia's continued buildup of support for the separatists in the wake of the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
When asked Monday if he thought the sanctions had at all changed Putin's calculus with respect to Ukraine, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the White House had " not seen the kinds of actions that we would like to see."
Dobrolet Grounded by Broadened EU Sanctions Against Russia
The grounding of the carrier follows just days after the European Union (EU) broadened its sanctions against Russia and added Dobrolet to its list of companies that EU persons and entities are prohibited from doing business with.
Russian low-cost carrier Dobrolet suspended all operations on August 4, 2014 after recently imposed European Sanctions against Russia in light of ongoing investigations into the Malaysia Airlines MH17 tragedy and Russia’s role in the Ukraine crisis, impacted its operations. According to parent carrier Aeroflot Russian Airlines the “temporary” grounding comes as a result of annulled aircraft insurance agreements, the suspension of the supply of aeronautical information and leasing, repair and maintenance agreements relating to its Boeing 737-800 fleet.
The grounding of the carrier follows just days after the European Union (EU) broadened its sanctions against Russia and added Dobrolet to its list of companies that EU persons and entities are prohibited from doing business with. In documentation the EU said that as a subsidiary of a Russian state-owned airline, Dobrolet had exclusively operated flights between Moscow and Simferopol since Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “It therefore facilitates the integration of the illegally annexed Autonomous Republic of Crimea into the Russian Federation and undermines Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity,” it added.
Dobrolet launched operations in June this year between Moscow’s Sheremetyevo International Airport and Simferopol, in the disputed Crimea region of Ukraine. It was in the process of a major domestic expansion with flights From the Russian capital to Volgograd commencing on August 1, 2014 and services to Samara (from August 15, 2014), Ufa (from August 16, 2014), Ekaterinburg and Perm (from August 29, 2014), Surgut (from August 30, 2014) and Kazan (October 1, 2014) all due to commence over the coming weeks.
Dobrolet said in a statement that it has been “forced to suspend flights temporarily” due to the sanctions. On the English language site it displays prominently the message “Due to EU sanctions against Dobrolet, we have to suspend all flights since August, 4th,” but its Russian language website confirms more details on the grounding, confirming it is related to the cancellation of a leasing contract for its Boeing 737-800s.
The budget carrier currently operates two Bermudan-registered 737-800s leased from BBAM Aircraft Leasing and Management and is due to receive a third example shortly from Dublin-based lessor SMBC Aviation Capital. It is understood that these aircraft will be returned to the lessor’s management with immediate effect.
Dobrolet hopes to maintain schedules while it sources additional aircraft and has confirmed it will switch passengers on its current two routes to Simferopol and Volgograd to Orenburg Airlines with flights continuing with the new provider until September 15, 2014 and August 20, 2014, respectively. Although its other planned routes will be “temporarily cancelled,” it said.
It is not clear how any further broadening of sanctions could impact other Russian operators. Dobrolet was specially identified and named in the EU’s sanction list due to its operations into the disputed Crimea region, but any tougher action could have a significant impact on the country’s commercial aviation sector as most airliners in Russia are leased, and many are registered either in Ireland or in British Overseas Territories, such as Bermuda.
“As the UK is responsible for the foreign affairs of its Overseas Territories, it is possible that future sanctions could affect other lease agreements with other airlines,” one Russian analyst told The HUB.
There are also question marks over whether the sanctions could impact wider air services between the European Union and Russia, which are controlled by restricted bilateral air service agreements. An expert in business relations between the European Union and Russia told The HUB that history shows us that Russia has previously been a regular user of "tit-for-tat tactics" to make diplomatic stances. This hypothetically could lead to some form of retaliatory action that could result in traffic rights being restricted or even revoked for European operators to fly into Russia or simply over its airspace, a popular routing between Europe and Asia. The latter would cause a major inconvenience to the aviation business but would also impact Russia, which secures significant income from overflight charges.
“For months, Moscow has applauded a separatist movement in eastern Ukraine as a justified quest for “federalization.” But when word spread of a planned August 17 “March for the Federalization of Siberia” in Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city, the country’s Internet monitoring agency took a less approving stance.”
“Gee..I hope this is no surprise to anyone! This is typical double speak and duel rules that Russia applies to all it’s dealing. I think that Putlier will never change until the day he dies. This is a perfect example of how Putlier tries to get what he wants, irregardless of what laws he must bend or break. The only thing that really surprises me is that the people in Russia seem to just go along with what ever he says or does! Like lambs to the slaughter.”
Check out the link for more.
You might find this (by cartographer Frank Jacobs) amusing:
"Why China Will Reclaim Siberia"
http://tinyurl.com/oxsjs78
Jacobs isn't the first to suggest this. Some of the most desirable territory in Siberia (particularly the Amur basin) was historically Chinese, and now has a sizable ethnic Chinese population.
The "principles" by which Russia stole Crimea don't need to be extended very far, to justify China's seizure of Siberian territory. The disparities in population and wealth between China and Russia, are much greater than Russia's advantage over Ukraine.
“Japan has decided to provide ¥150 billion ($1.5 billion) in economic aid for Ukraine, the largest pledge by any individual country, including the US, thus far.”
“The former defense minister continues by saying that “in the immediate future, Japan will work with the G-7 to ensure that Putin’s reckless ambitions do not endanger other parts of Ukraine. Already, Japan has decided to provide ¥150 billion ($1.5 billion) in economic aid for Ukraine, the largest pledge by any individual country, including the US, thus far.”
“Before the Crimea invasion, territorial negotiations between Japan and Russia showed signs of progress,” she observes. “But it is now clear not only that Putin is returning Russia to the stagnation of the late-Soviet era, but also that he subscribes to former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev’s dictum that “what we have, we hold.”
And she adds that “more important, Japan understands that business as usual with an aggressive Russia that undermines the international order could embolden others closer to home to embrace Putin’s lawless tactics. The days of an inward looking Japan are over. Japan now sees threats elsewhere in the world in the context of its own security, and will react appropriately.”
Koike’s comments represent a major geopolitical shift and her remark about the ethnic Ukrainians in the disputed territories should lead others to focus on what Ukrainians call the “Zeleny Klyn” or “green wedge,” the portion of the Russian Far East to which St. Petersburg send Ukrainians in the last three decades of the tsarist period.”
http://www.interpretermag.com/moscow-now-has-a-ukrainian-problem-in -the-russian-far-east-former-japanese-defense-minister-says/
Currently 36.4 / USD, and plummeting rapidly. The ruble may crash its all-time low of 36.9 / USD set on 2 March, when Russian military were overspreading Crimea and seizing bases there.
Almost certainly, an important factor in this change is the apparent risk that Russia will "officially" invade eastern Ukraine any time in the next few weeks.
Another factor may be Russia's economic sanctions against the West (see lonely's post above), which are expected to intensify inflation of Russia's currency.