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	Create New Topic   My Posts   My forum buddies   Invite friends   Private messages Russian brides > Main Forum > Economic Consequences of the War Author Post durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/7/2014 12:45:41 PM   A nice article about Danny and his friends: http://goo.gl/XVq7xU Remember to clean up when you're finished, boys! durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/7/2014 12:50:47 PM   RUBLE NEWS During the past day and a half, Russia's central banks have managed to keep RUB / USD below 40. Surely, they are doing this by spending lots of their euro and dollar reserves to buy rubles, though I don't have information on how much it's costing them. It's a tough fight, however. The best they've been able to do is 39.69, and it has already deteriorated to the neighborhood of 39.9 . Russians are red-hot to get rid of their rubles, trading them for currencies that are worth something in the world -- currencies supported by stable and law-abiding systems of government. RodanTsunami Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/7/2014 3:45:22 PM   Russia wants to know when the sanctions will be lifted and discussions are presented to the table in that effect. WHEN RUSSIA RESPECT THE SOVEREIGNTY OF AND THE TERMS OF THE PRAGUE ACCORDS AND WHEN IT VACATES CRIMEA. Cuba has been under sanctions just days short of 54 years. Get used to it Bolshevik Bastards.............. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/7/2014 4:25:32 PM   POOR LITTLE PUTIN! On his birthday, when he wants to celebrate, a grown-up has pulled his pants down and given him a good spanking: http://goo.gl/NZrmZz Putin has grand plans to modernize and expand Russia's armed forces ... but his finance minister, Anton Siluanov, has explained that "we can't afford it." Western sanctions are only part of the problem. Russia's economic growth was already imploding in the second half of last year, and oil prices are low. Putin's grand spending plans were based on a 6% annual growth rate, and $100/bbl petroleum. 2014 GDP growth is likely to closer to 1%, and Russia's benchmark crude is selling around $90/bbl. When boys are naughty, their birthday party can be spoiled... poppy Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/7/2014 9:06:43 PM   Durak Thanks for the post ..... A good read . But may i sujest somethingv If your keen to find a lady why dont you spend more time walking and exercising then worrying about putin . Loosing weight could increase tour chances . Girls dont dig fat blokes durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/8/2014 1:30:09 PM   ALL THE KING'S HORSE AND ALL THE KING'S MEN ... ... can't put the Russian ruble together again. Despite central bank intervention, RUB / USD has been in the 40.13 to 40.15 range for the past few hours. lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/8/2014 8:50:08 PM   With Putin’s status and stature crumbling down around him,,,, you need to wonder how he will strike back. When Putin is cornered, he goes on the offense, and if he can’t afford more conventional weapons,,, he can always fall back on his abundant supply of nukes. He’s just been itching to use them. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/8/2014 10:07:10 PM   @lonely: Putin surely enjoys frightening people with his weapons. But like all the world's power-mad, his top priority is increasing his power, and keeping it as long as possible. Using nuclear weapons isn't the way to accomplish that, and he is rational enough to get that. Putin is cruel, vicious, and since February, reckless and impulsive. But I see no evidence that he is insane or suicidal. lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/8/2014 10:52:13 PM   No,,, I don’t think he is suicidal either,,,, but I’m not sure about him not being insane. His ego and greed controls his actions,,, he has no problems letting his people suffer to reach his goals. Pathological might be a better word? durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/8/2014 11:51:45 PM   @lonely: Maybe the word you're looking for is sociopath, for which Putin could be the "poster child": [soh-see-uh-path, soh-shee-] noun, Psychiatry. 1. a person with a psychopathic personality whose behavior is antisocial, often criminal, and who lacks a sense of moral responsibility or social conscience. lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 12:15:49 AM   Perhaps a Pathological Sociopath?? Pathological: uncontrolled or unreasonable “compulsive, extreme, uncontrolled, unreasonable, unreasoning, obsessive, irrational, neurotic” ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 11:26:10 AM   Putin is simply being a Soviet. The Soviets didn't care about their people, only their ideology, much like Obama. lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 3:31:15 PM   Durak,,,, FYI,,,, I’ve known what a sociopath was long before your post! In fact,,,, I’ve had to deal with one on almost a daily basis for years now,,,, starting about a month or two after joining this forum. Sociopaths can take on many names!! durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 6:02:39 PM   RUSSIAN OUTLOOK 1. The central bank is sticking to its limited intervention policy, which Russia adopted after burning up a huge portion of its foreign currency reserves in 2008. In effect, the ruble is nearly free-floating. The advantage for Russia is that they save their reserves and have more flexibility; the disadvantages are those that come with plummeting currency. 2. It could be worse: one major currency has done worse than the ruble this year. The Argentine peso :) 3. Since early July, Russian businesses have been unable to borrow or otherwise raise money from the West. The only place they can now get dollars or euros is from Putin's government. 4. However, Russian businesses must still make payments on foreign loans they took out before the window closed. In total, they must pay out almost $50 billion in the last quarter of this year. In order to obtain the needed dollars (or euros), they must buy them from the Russian central banking system, paying today's massively pumped-up rates ... so this is causing a lot of pain. (For those with auto loans or home mortgages, imagine your monthly payment suddenly rising 30%). The need for these foreign currencies is fueling the worsening exchange rate: it's a question of supply and demand. 5. It's not all bad news for Russia's Big Players: the weak ruble means that payments fixed in rubles are effectively cheaper. Great for Putin, whose pensions to the elderly don't cost him as much; awful for those living on pensions. Inflation is about 8%, and base interest rates are pushing 9%. Food inflation is near 12%. 6. If Russia's benchmark crude (called Urals) recovers to $100/bbl (currently a little below $90), the ruble is expected to strengthen to around 38/USD -- lousy, but at least an improvement. If Urals continues its slide to $85/bbl, the ruble could continue to 42/USD. The ruble is now a pure petro-currency, because Russia is a petro-state. Russia's underlying economy is for sh*t. In economic terms, Russia is a much colder and much more heavily armed Saudi Arabia -- though bizarrely, vastly more corrupt than even the Saudi regime! (Don't take my word for this, see the Transparency International rankings.) 7. Russian consumer purchases of big-ticket items (cars, computers, vacation travel) have decreased by large margins (on the order of 30% or more). So relax, Russians. The economy and currency are crumbling all around you, but Putin will still have his gold and currency reserves, and a small budget deficit. Vsyo v poryadkye! ragingbull Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 7:17:16 PM   About your #4, durak. If Russian businesses do not pay the foreign loans, what would happen? They're not getting more loans anyway. Perhaps most won't pay? RodanTsunami Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 11:09:13 PM   N'er a liter of LNG should pass Ukraine and time now for a secondary boycott of China for trading in Russian oil. DBHundertmark Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/9/2014 11:58:25 PM   mai eye aulso thank ewu four dat post. mai eye aulso sujest sumthingv ef u r kehn too fin a laydee y dont u tri growen a tale cheeks dig a geye wit a tale durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/10/2014 2:25:00 AM   @rb: That's an interesting question, and I can only speculate: I'm no money guy! I think that for at least some of those businesses, if they never get foreign credit again -- they are finished. Their only hope is that the present sanctions regime is temporary, so you can see how anxious they must be feeling about Putin's stubborn criminality. In such cases, they MUST make loan payments, or lose all future possibility of credit. Remember that Russia is a 2 trillion dollar economy (the US and EU are EACH about ten times that), and it is absolutely stalled. Just today, the IMF projected that Russia's GDP over 2014 AND 2105 will grow a total of about 1%. That isn't 1% per year, that's 1% over TWO YEARS. Russia has some industries with very intensive capital needs, especially its cash cow: petroleum. According to what I was reading when the sanctions started, there's no way the necessary capital could be raised inside Russia. Putin has put his own economy over a barrel. I suppose he thinks that the West is so cowardly that the sanctions will soon be lifted, and of course many of us are worried that he is right. However (take note, rodan) Germany's Angela Merkel said just a few days ago that we must not lift the sanctions just because there is a nominal cease-fire. She's now taking the position that the West must hold Russia's feet to the flames until it is clear that the situation is really getting resolved. I understand rodan's frustration about Merkel's reluctance to punish Russia, but I don't think rodan realizes how furious she had become by the end of July. Reportedly, she takes very personally the numerous times Putin has lied to her, and is done "making nice." In parallel, polls of ordinary Germans have shown that a majority support sanctioning Russia, EVEN IF IT COSTS GERMAN JOBS. If you look at history, it takes both leadership and public opinion time to change direction. I guess what I'm trying to say, is that there is a reasonable basis for hope that the West will hang in there. durak Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/10/2014 2:27:02 AM   DAMN THIS IS ENTERTAINING I was just about to post the RUB / USD is at an all-time high of 40.19 ... ... but it is my duty to report that in the last few minutes, it rose to 40.22 F U C K Y O U P U T I N lonelyranger1701 Member send PM   block PM add to buddies Send: 10/10/2014 2:41:09 AM   And the horse he rode in on! Your Reply: Your name:   New Registration Password:   Forgot password?   refresh Code:   Russian brides > Main Forum > Economic Consequences of the War
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